Wednesday, 30 April 2014

Former Tory Does The Right Thing

After the decision of the Standards Committee to suspend him from parliament for six months over cash-for-questions allegations, former Tory MP Patrick Mercer, who currently sits as an independent, has just announced his resignation.

Note he only did the right thing after he stopped being a ToRIE SKKKKummM.  Obviously, there is something in the ToRIE DNA which prevents them from ever doing the Right Thing.

The very rightwing and unbiased New Statesman suggests the by-election might offer the UKIP a chance to win a seat.  It looks possible - The ToRIEzzZ polled 53% of the vote, Labour 22%, Lib Dems 20% and UKIP 3%.  A massive tactical vote by the opposition parties, plus some Tory defection and a low turn out, might do it.

The question for Farage would be, would he want to win a seat only to lose it in less than a year, when it almost certainly turns ToRIE again in the General Election?  It isn't natural Yukker territory, and they could only win it through a fortunate combination of circumstance and tactical support, neither of which they can rely on in a GE.  Think of all those massive Lib Dem victories in the Major years, which mostly turned blue in the general elections.  A short term boost, versus the longer term humiliation of very likely being expunged in May 2015?

For Labour and the Lib Dems, the question is whether they run a candidate.  The Lib dems might like to not lose a deposit - not running a candidate would at least allow them to say they didn't!  Labour know they can't win, but might still want to be see to be in the contest.  If they don't it maximises the chance of the UKIP humiliating Cameron.  But it also opens the way to accusations of them acknowleding they can't win, letting the UKIP do their work for them and so on.

I suppose the question has to be asked whether it is worth the ToRIEzzZ running a candidate.

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