Monday, 14 January 2013

First Bad Science Award of 2013

Goes to The Telegraph for this 'error':
A new scientific model has revised previous figures for the next five years downwards by around a fifth. 
The forecast compares how much higher average world temperatures are likely to be than the “long-term average” from 1971-2000. 
It had been thought that this would be 0.54C during the period 2012 -2016 but new data puts the figure for the 2013-2017 period at 0.43C. 
This figure is little higher than the 0.40C recorded in 1998, the warmest year in the Met Office Hadley Centre’s 160-year record – suggesting global warming will have stalled in the intervening two-decade period. 
The fact that the average temperature for several years is only marginally warmer than 1998 does not suggest global warming has 'stalled'.

First, because 1998 was an outlier, a freak year driven up to record (according to some data sets) highs by a combination of factors. Matching that freak is evidence that overall temperatures have increased. 

Second, because some of these years will be cooler than the 0.43 baseline - and some hotter. Perhaps significantly, if the factors that conspired to heat up 1998 are in play.

Mutterings about Musk

Going to try to get into the blogging thing again (ha!) what with anew PM, an election coming up and all that. So today I thought I'd st...