Don't Count Your Burnhams

Apparently it's all in the bag:

Andy Burnham will push to become prime minister in time to address Labour’s autumn party conference in Liverpool, his supporters have said.

The Greater Manchester mayor cleared his first hurdle to becoming the candidate in the Makerfield byelection on Friday when Labour’s ruling body gave him permission to stand for the seat.

If confirmed as Labour’s choice, he will need to win a difficult contest for the Greater Manchester seat in mid to late June. Support for Reform UK surged in the area at the local elections.

With the byelection most likely to take place on 18 June, some of Burnham’s supporters believe he has a path to becoming prime minister before parliament breaks for the summer recess, but sources close his campaign believe his preference is for a longer timeline.

His prize for winning a leadership contest in the summer would be a victorious homecoming and what one supporter described as a “natural moment” for a transfer of power in Manchester.

But remember, "all great world-historic facts and personages appear, so to speak, twice. He forgot to add: the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce"; and Andy Burnham has always been something of a clown car politician.

This is the man who managed to twice be rejected by the Labour membership in leadership contests.  Losing the first time to Ed Miliband - making him one of a very small number of people to achieve that feat, outisde the Miliband family circle.  And the second time to Jeremy Corbyn, so decisively he couldn't even muster 20% support, even though he officially finished second.

(Corbyn is, of course, the elephant in the room; everyone knows he'd win again at a canter, if a) he hadn't been bundled out of the party on a shoddy pretext and b) MPs didn't have a lock down on who gets onto the ballot.  

(Those same MPs - terrified of losing their jobs when they are finally forced to confront the electorate once again - might want to remember Corbyn secured a brain melting 40% of the vote in 2017, and even his 2019 nadir - after two years of constant vilification and undermining by the same people now desperately trying to defenestrate Starmer - was virtually the same vote share as Starmer's glorious victory.)

Burhman can't lead Labour until he manages to win Makerfield.  That's a big ask.  Neither the Tories, nor Reform, nor the Greens want him to win.  All of them benefit from Starmer staying in place.  

Reform will fight ferociously for the seat, because of the publicity it will afford them, and because they'd rather not have the amiable Burnham as PM rather than Starmer.  

The Conservatives will put up a candidate - they sort of have to if they are going to pretend to be the party of Great Britain - but I imagine the luckless offering will barely leave their living room.  It's not just because it's Manchester, its because they would also rather have Starmer blundering on.  The Conservative strategy will be not to drawn votes from Reform.  Destroying Burnham and keeping Starmer in place will be a jolly good result for them.

The Greens will likely contest the seat effectively as well, because they will profit from the profile boost and because (like the other two) they benefit from having Starmer carry on.  So they may siphon off some crucial votes, letting Reform through the middle.  If this is pointed out to them, they can - justifiably - point out that if Labour wants their supporters' votes, maybe Labour should be a bit more like them and a bit less like the Tories or Reform; and since Starmer netted an undeserved 400 seat majority by splitting the opposition between Reform and the conservatives, he can hardly complain when the same trick is used against him.  After all, he's the only one in a position to do anything about electoral reform.

Also, of course, the British public HATE being manipulated like this.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them vote against Labour out of spite, disgusted by Burnham's hubris and neglect of his mayoral duty.

So nope to Burnham (likely won't get elected.)  

Nope to Streeting (Seems no-one likes him.)

Nope to Starmer (definitely no-one likes him.)

I can't see the Miliband souffle rising again.  Nor can I imagine Angela Rayner making a serious go of it.

My guess?  Shabana Mahmood. I don't like her politics much, but I think she might be grimly efficient, and a terrific foil to Nigel Farage.

Staunch

Not only did Omar refuse to back down and insisted on continuing with her meeting, but as the thug assaulted her she looked like she was ready to land a few blows herself.

Bob Jenrick Defects to Reform

 

I apologise for including this picture of these two Not Great people.  No, I don't.  You deserve it.

Title says it all.  Bob the Bloke - who never saw a cheap publicity grabbing stunt he didn't like - has had the whip withdrawn for plotting to defect to Reform, and promptly defected to Reform.

This may actually be good for Badenoch.  Jenrick was a continual threat to her leadership.  Now he gone off to become a continual threat to Nigel Farage's.  This has likely extended her leadership.   There aren't any more clear leaders-in-waiting in the (very thinned) ranks of the Conservative Party.  Presumably, Jenrick was looking at the recent slight recovery in the polls and realised his chances of usurping her were fading.

Keir Starmer is probably weeping bitter tears and wondering why Kemi is so lucky and why none of the various thorns in his side don't piss off and join Your Party.

Mick Foley is a Hero

Mick Foley is a legendary wrestler (Cactus Jack, Mankind, Dude Love). He's famous for taking the hardest knocks in the business. 

He forged a respectable post wrestling career as a writer. His memoir of his wrestling days - Have a Nice Day: a Tale of Blood and Sweatsocks - is a joyous, bizarre ride through one of the strangest parts of the entertainment industry. 

"I no longer wish to represent a company that coddles a man so seemingly void of compassion."

A lot of his peers - who  won't name because fuck 'em - have publicly supported Trump. But Foley is a hero and does things his way. 

Always.

As Atticus Finch almost said, a hero isn't a man with a gun.  Sometimes it's a guy with a chair.  Or in this case, a guy who regularly got whacked over the head with a chair but is still more cogent than the 47th President.

Candace Owens needs help

Not shit-posting but drowning.  Cries for help don't always sound like cries for help.

Candace Owens providing another ... uh ... unique and evidence free take on reality.

Owens alleged that the US ‘military is involved’. Like many of her other claims, which came in the wake of the Turning Point USA founder's assassination, she's yet to provide proof to back this up.

I initially started off planning to make fun of her.  It's still tempting.  After all, this is a woman who - in the last few months has claimed Brigitte Macron is a man and is now being heartily sued for it.  She's burrowed deeper into the strange rabbit hole that is her brain by claiming French special forces (aided by Israelis) are plotting to murder her.

But I remembered many years ago a post about Shoah / Holocaust denier David Irving (who, like Candace, has some problems with the Jews) and how I started off by laughing at his absurdity as much as condemning his evil, but within a few lines I found myself feeling pity more than anger and contempt.  The man was obviously deeply troubled and while that doesn't exculpate him, it does provide some context.

(For the record, that post probably hasn't aged too well - the interviewer who prompted those revelations from Irving was Johann Hari, a gentleman who has turned out to have his own problems with what we will politely call objectivity.  Because it turns out you can have self-serving liars, narcissists, bad actors and straight out fantasists on the left as well as the right.)

Candace Owens has been a diligent miner of the MAGA seam, conjuring outrage and alientation into gold (for her).  But her output has become more and more extreme and less and less hinged.  I don't think this is a cunning marketing ploy.  She's alienating potential marks.  Only people as disconnected from reality as she is will be buying.  This doesn't look like the normal rightwing grift.  This looks like someone having a breakdown in public.

For the benefit of Elon Musk, Alan Gardiner, Nick Tenconi and others

 This is how you make a celebratory or exultant arm gesture without looking like a neo-Nazi.

The Battle of Caerphilly

So the results are in and it seems the battalions of Reform have been dealt a swinging defeat at Caerphilly. Wales is a bit like Afghanistan - you just shouldn't try it on there.

Perhaps the Battle of Caerphilly represents the turning of the sinister nationalist tide? We can but hope. 

 At least is Wales and Scotland, pissed of Labour has somewhere to go that isn't Reform.  Given Labour seems unwilling to do anything to make it look like a party anyone would want to vote for, England needs a similar not-Reform receptacle. 

With due respect to Zak Polanski, I don't think the Greens are it.  They might have more members than the Conservative Party, but bragging about that just confirms their fringe status.  With a following wind and Labour engaged in a curious act of self-destruction they are on 12%.  Enough to split critical votes but not consolidate potential voters into a cohesive, winning whole.  Though there may be time for that.  I may be wrong, it happens.

While I have a place in my heart for the Corbyn / Sultana party / Acrimonious Break Up / Party, I don't think they quite get the urgency of the situation.  Given they are currently touring the country to 'workshop' policies with 'the people' (i.e. the sort of people who sell Socialist Worker and attend meetings), they might be ready for the fight sometime about 2083 - probably with a manifesto of policies which could have been copied and pasted from the 1983 Labour manifesto.  Though I may be wrong, it happens.

But assuming I amn't, what is to be done?