"I have a plan, Sir"

The Lib Dems are considering giving their support to an attempt to by-pass the Fixed Term Parliaments Act to give Boris Johnson an election:

Boris Johnson has been offered a route to securing the pre-Christmas election that he has been seeking, through a plan that would only require the support of a simple majority of MPs.

With most Labour MPs still against the idea of a snap election, the prime minister looks set to lose his bid to secure a December poll on Monday in a vote that requires the backing of two-thirds of MPs. Other parties are also opposing an election until the EU has granted a three-month Brexit delay, although the DUP hinted on Saturday it could back the move.

However, in a sign that the coalition opposed to an election is under strain, the Liberal Democrats have drawn up a plan allowing Johnson to secure a December poll with a simple majority of MPs, with the support of Jo Swinson’s party and the SNP.

Typical short-sighted tactics by the Lib Dems, undermining the one good thing to come out of the Coalition. Undermining parliament's control over its own destiny.

This ploy could be used by government to bypass the FTPA and have an election at their convenience. If the Lib Dems do it now, they have legitimised it and any future PM will be able to use the same mechanism. The moral injunction against anyone doing it evaporates as soon as it is done. So they shouldn't do it, in case a some point in the future they want to be able to tell other people not to do it.

I want an election but I want it done properly and in accordance with the law, not through some wily subterfuge that will later on become a tool for cynical PMs.

Labour, meanwhile are calling on Johnson ruling out No Deal. I'm interested in seeing what Labour mean when they are calling for No Deal to be ruled out. That's consistent with what they have always wanted so it makes sense. I'm not sure how they expect it to work - unless it is based on a promise from Johnson, which isn't worth much - but I accept they *MAY* be smarter than me and know what they are about.

I wouldn't give them too long to sort it out though.

Surely the Lib Dems would be interested in preventing No Deal?

There is an alternative.  It proceeds on the assumption we get a lengthy extension, which the EU seems to be about to announce. The main aims (as I see it) at this stage are: remove No Deal from the table as a 'default' option; secure a second referendum; secure a second election; humiliate Johnson to ensure maximum chance of doing well in that election.

The proposed route where the FTPA is by-passed is not satisfactory. It sets an unpleasant precedent that could be abused later on. Also, it gives Jonson control. He's not going to rule out No Deal, it won't get a second referendum, he's going to set the terms of an election and he's going to come out of it enhanced, not humiliated. So a big old fail there.

If I was Seamus Milne, this is what I might be planning:

1. Demand the PM puts forward a bill (or something) pledging that No Deal is not an option. Argue it has to come from Johnson so he is honour bound to stick with it if he wins the up-coming election. Johnson, of course, refuses.


2. Spring a VONC in the government when Johnson refuses to rule out No Deal. If Johnson survives, so be it. At least they tried. If the motion succeeds, Johnson's government falls. He is humiliated and loses control of the schedule.


3. Try to set up a GNU, led by Corbyn. Dare the Lib Dems and pro-remain indies to vote against it. If they do, then Labour can campaign arguing their true colours were exposed and their commitment to the EU was found wanting; if setting up the GNU succeeds, then they have a short window to pass legislation ruling out No Deal, setting up a second referendum and having the election at the time of their choosing. They might even have time to grab an 'off the shelf' Norway style deal from the EU.


4. If a Corbyn GNU can not work, throw the party's weight behind another candidate. The important thing is to be seen to be genuinely trying. If that doesn't work, an election follows.


5. In the election, campaign like fiends, pointing out that Corbyn was PM for a month and the sky did not fall, or that he gallantly set aside his own ambitions to enable a GNU, or that he tried his utmost but the Tories, Lib Dems and supposedly pro-Remain indies frustrated his efforts.

Steps 3 and 4 are the crucial ones - if the push came to shove, would the Lib Dems and pro-Remain Indies actually support a Corbyn led GNU? Would Corbyn be able to rally his own party to support another figure?

You have to wonder about a party where the leader muttered something about supporting Johnson's deal (with the proviso of a second referendum) and which now is contemplating supporting his efforts to undermine a law the Lib Dems insisted on being passed in the coalition years.

Another day of bonkers GNUmours (again, sorry)

First, almost a score of Labour MPs seem to have sent a letter to the EU basically begging them to accept a deal - any deal - just so Britain can get the Heck on with Brexiting instead of being trapped in limbo:

To avoid no deal, deliver on the ref outcome and break the deadlock we have sent the letter below to Juncker and Tusk #Brexit pic.twitter.com/xnvEbLFlmI

— Emma Lewell-Buck MP (@EmmaLewellBuck) 8 October 2019

They are literally asking the EU to accept a Conservative Prime Minister's hopeless deal, rather than try to gain power and sort out a better deal for Britain. They are effectively enabling and extending an even-more-dangerous-than-usual Tory government, rather than trying to bring it down.

(The even scarier thing is they aren't even the maddest Brexiteers in Labour - you won't see Kate Hoey or John Mann's name on that list. It's far too diluted for them. They like their Brexit neat, if that isn't some sort of oxymoron.)

This is why I think a non-Corbyn GNU will struggle to get across the line. That's 19 votes that probably won't be available for an alternative candidate, whereas they probably would be available for Corbyn. Basically, they cancel out the Lib Dems. Assuming those 19 - and Hoey and Mann - refused to support a non-Corbyn GNU, and all the other Labour MPs did (a huge assumption) then then it would be at 283, still needing the pro-Remain Independents to support en masse. Possible, but difficult.

Where as Corbyn, the SNP, the Lib Dems, Plaid and the Greens can probably get there, or very nearly there, as he can expect his MPs to support him.

But wait, there's more ... According to the Financial Times, in a sort of exchange student MP deal, fifty MPs, including three cabinet ministers have threatened to walk out in Johnson makes a No Deal Brexit an election commitment:

Several prominent ministers would find a no deal manifesto problematic to support, including Julian Smith, Nicky Morgan and Robert Buckland. Same for plenty in the junior ranks too. https://t.co/GUbXW77Kir

— Sebastian Payne (@SebastianEPayne) 9 October 2019

Obvious the problem with this story is ... Tories. Until they actually walk out the door, assume they will do the opposite of what they say they will do. But it does suggest the antipathy towards Johnson's 'dead in a ditch' approach is growing.

(It also suggests the 50, particularly the cabinet ministers, are pretty dimwitted, as an fule could see from years ago (well, a few weeks back) that Johnson hadn't the slightest interest in a deal. If they actually thought they were assisting other than a Titanic style Brexit, they were clearly rather hopeless - which raises the worrying possibility that their resignations might leave the Johnson administration brighter and more dangerous, by some strange alchemy.)

So, yeah, just another day of lunacy in Brexitland.

Are GNUs extinct?

Another round of tactical talks about forming a Government of National Unity have come to nothing with the Liberal Democrats still refusing countenance putting Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street:

Opposition talks on Monday made little headway over when to try and vote down Boris Johnson's government and who might succeed him as prime minister.

Labour said the Lib Dems were being "irresponsible" in refusing to back a temporary Jeremy Corbyn-led government.

But Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson said he did not have wide enough support.

The SNP called on the other two parties to "grow up" and warned that time was running out to stop the UK leaving the EU on 31 October.

The Lib Dems and the pro-Remain Independents and TIG4C (henceforth, "the Lib Dems") are being idiots over this. It is senseless. There is no logical reason not to throw their weight behind a Corbyn candidacy.

If Corbyn GENUINELY does not have the number then it could be proven in Parliament by simply having a VOC. But they know that - with their backing - he would win that (Tories + DUP = 298) and they don't want that. So they are making fantastical claims about some mythical 'number' he needs and can not achieve and insist that he 'step aside' for some equally mythical unity candidate that they can not even identify, far less demonstrate that this unicorn of a candidate has the 'numbers.'

They say they don't want Brexit, but talk is cheap. Actions speak louder. The Lib Dems are exaggerating their anti-Brexit credentials as a unique selling point but fundamentally don't seems to actually intend to live up to their rhetoric.

They've nicely put themselves into a position where they are either going to have enable No Deal Brexit, or renege on their loud talk about being unable to support Corbyn under any circumstances, or have to sit sullenly on the sidelines while Labour actually go about trying to do the thing the Lib Dems have been saying they really, really want to do.

Any of those scenarios leaves them looking like posturing clowns playing politics and not even doing that well; diminished, irrelevant, mealy-mouthed and ineffective.

Jermey Corbyn, I don't like GNU (sorry)

So, the latest ruminations on the gnews from Westminster (Again, sorry; I'll stop making that pun right now).  This follows on from, and likely repeats bits of, my last post, on the suggestion that a Government of National Unity (GNU) should be set up and then oversee a referendum before calling an election.

You will recall, gentle reader, that I am not in favour of this ideas as the GNU simply won't have the numbers to survive that long, nor to deal with any governance issues, and because if it lasts more than a few weeks it will taint those involved, strengthening the Tories for the subsequent election. Remember all those jibes and sneers at Johnson as an 'unelected' PM with no mandate? Can you imagine how much more vicious they would be, aimed at a GNU cobbled together from multiple parties 'with the sole aim of overturning the will of the people'? Cummings would love to be able to run that attack line for six months before a referendum, and then (having won the referendum) for the subsequent election.

I admit there is a risk in the election then referendum strategy - what if the Conservatives run on an anti-EU platform and win a majority? Then they could cancel the referendum outright. Hopefully, the GNU / EU will see that coming and in their agreement will stipulate that a second referendum must be held during the extension ... effectively giving an indefinite extension period if the referendum is cancelled.

Nobody on the Remain side can command a majority. Otherwise they would already be PM.

Corbyn is closer, by virtue of having the Labour Party behind him. Any other candidate will be starting from much further back and - after all this talk about how not voting for Corbyn because he "doesn't have the numbers" (conveniently forgetting that "the numbers" are nebulous) - would need to be able to demonstrate they "have the numbers" before they can anticipate support from Labour; which makes it impossible, since Labour has over a third of the MPs and most of them are going to support a Corbyn bid.

I think the Lib Dems have done an impressive job of shooting themselves in the foot over this - an, unfortunately, possibly shot all of us in the foot as well.

This is what I think will happen:

• VONC / failure of the Queen's Speech once parliament resumes. 14 day count down to an election commences ...
• Attempt by Corbyn to set up a GNU. Gets 280 votes and is voted down by the Tories and DUP. Independents and Lib Dems abstain / vote against. - Attempt to set up a Clarke led GNU. Gets about 150 votes.
• Possibly other attempts to set up a GNU under other candidates. All the time, the clock is ticking. None get more than 200 votes.  Maybe 250, depending on how flakey Labour MPs are.
• Second attempt to set up a Corbyn GNU. This time, some of the more nervous (or responsible) Lib Dems and / or Independents vote in favour, with an eye on the clock. It gets 300 votes. Crucially, a few less fanatical Conservatives abstain / are mysteriously absent and the vote against is only about 290. Corbyn is PM!

Interestingly, once he is installed, I think things may become slightly easier. the Lib Dems / Independents can say, "We think this is a really rotten idea and we wish it was someone else, but we will try to work constructively with the new administration and make sure it remains (pun intentional) on track to agree an extension and pass the referendum legislation.)

Reckon Jo's gonna decide to ride Jerry's GNU at the last minute?

Now, I need to get something off my chest here.

At heart I am a Remainer. I can see no purpose in leaving the EU. I've always accepted Labour's position that the country voted for Brexit (because it did) and that any Brexit should do the least damage to the country and people's jobs as possible (because people voted to leave the EU, not trash the economy, make themselves unemployed and tear the already frayed social fabric to pieces - that wasn't on the voting paper.) I've welcomeed their painstaking moves towards supporting a second referendum pitching Remain against a new soft Brexit deal.

Contrast that with the Conservative's Titanicesque intent on crashing the coutnry out of the EU in four weeks time, or the Lib Dem's intention to give the electorate the finger and ignore the referendum. Labour's policy has always been the only sane one in the room, which is why it has been hated on by both extremes.

Suppose some miracle lead to Article 50 being revoked tomorrow. Would that end Euroscepticism as we know it? Nope, it would just carry on as before, with Farage demanding a new referendum and so on and on until they got it. If it was a bad horror B movie, it would be the Revenge of the Night of Nigel Farage.

Suppose we got a Hard Brexit / No Deal. Would that be the end of it? Nope, because we know that is going to screw up the country for the next twenty five years, and we'll probably end up rejoining and having to take the Euro and all the other things we're currently opted out of. At which point the Son of the Night of Nigel Farage pops up and starts campaigning to leave.

Whereas a shoddy, half-assed Brexit was always the sensible option that left everyone disappointed but at least feeling the other side hadn't won. Human nature being what it is, we don't mind losing - its the sense that someone else has won that pisses us off. So a sort-of Brexit means everyone thinks they've lost and feels somewhat unhappy in a typically British sort of way, but not narked to the point they want to kick the can of worms over again might have been the least rotten outcome, unless we really want this dire soap opera to run into another season.