The Big Man

So, Alex Salmond has announced he will step down as First Minister of Scotland.  This is, of course, being presented as throwing his toys and peevish behaviour following the independence referendum and the defeat of the 'Yes' campaign.

Which is an odd reaction, given the blind panic that has been the defining feature of the 'No' campaign for the last fortnight or so, ever since the polls started to narrow and it became to look like 'Yes' might just make it.

Credit where it is due. His goal was to give the people of Scotland a chance to decide if they wanted to be independent or not. He achieved his goal. He could have continued to lord it over the Scottish parliament for years to come, but has decided to step aside. He's shown himself to be what, in Scotland, we'd call a big man.  Not just a tough guy or a hard man, but someone who can take knocks as well as giving them out.  William McIlvaney wrote a book with that title, exploring the strange permutations of Scottish macho.

Salmond's dignity in defeat an example David Cameron might consider following in victory.  Only, it is unlikely Cameron has half an iota of Salmond's principle.

But Cameron, of course, has shown he has neither principle or backbone.  He used to glory in a 'Flashman' reputation.  He tried to play the big man, as a Tory would imagine a big man - acting like a strutting peacock, a loud-mouth bully at PMQs, scoffing at anyone who dared to, you know, ask him a question that wasn't about how fabulous David Cameron and his shabby government was.  it was a disgaceful display of arrogance but it allowed the clueless Cameron to bluster his way out of tight corners the uselessness of the his ministers and his own blinkered inadequacy got himself into, week after week.

(Aided, it must be acknowledged, but the profound uselessness that is commonly referred to as Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.)

Cameron's Flashman alter-ego dominated the early stages of the referendum debate, trying to rig it by insisting on a Yes / No option because he was feart (good Scots word) of the likely widespread support for enhanced devolution.  But when that seemed to be about to blow up in Flashie's face, the swaggering toff revealed his true colours, magnificently soiled himself, blubbed (while muttering threats) and ignominiously rushed into offering the things he had tried to keep off the negotiating table in the first place, promising at all sorts of new powers for the Scottish parliament and ponies for everyone.

Such unstatesmanlike behaviour might have been worth it - just - if it had bought time for Cameron to lick some wounds and rebuild his shattered reputation and credibility.  But Cameron, having been humiliated in the North, has another arduous electoral ordeal to endure.

He must now face the UKIP in the south, where Douglas Carsewell's defection and resignation (another man of principle, Mr Carsewell) means the UKIP will likely gain their first MP and Cameron will have to deal with a devastating defeat.

Like King Harold of Hastings fame (only less noble and impressive and without that man's legitimate claim to power) Cameron must charge from one end of the kingdom to the other to fight swarming enemies intent on his destruction. Like Harold, he has been fatally weakened by the battle in the North and will meet nemesis in the south.

Unlike Harold, he won't be remembered in history as a bold man brought down by overwhelming odds, but as a fool who engineered his own destruction.

Salmond - a bit of a joke for as long as I can remember - proved himself to be a big man in the end, both in delivering on his promises, fighting a brave campaign, and accepting the dashing of his life's hopes with dignity.  Cameron has been revealed to be very, very small, and the process of reduction of Flashman to Flash-in-the-Pan is not even over.

The Mail - merely mad, or essentially evil?

I think the Mail has actually gone clinically insane over Independence.

It's running a story titled "Salmond's bullies hit a blind man in the face - just for saying NO!" and referring to yes voters as 'separatists' who are likely to use 'menacing tactics' to intimidate and bully loyal unionists.

What a heap of shit it is. I wish I was in Scotland so I could vote Yes just to spite it.

And this visceral reaction makes me suspect think the Mail's relentless negative, personal and disgusting raving is a deliberate tactic to motivate people to vote YES, out of anger and contempt for its poison. After all, the Mail's owners' interests aren't served by having 45 extra Labour MPs in Westminster.

David Cameron - Worst PM ever?

That is the question being asked at the top of the Independent's web site.  It links to a sterling blog post by Jean Paul Fauget, which is worth a read.  Fauget does, however, make one mistake in his ruminations.  He contends:

The colossal mistake, rather, was to not fight that contest himself – to fail to commit his government and the nation to its own self-preservation. By handing the campaign over to his political opponents on the assumption that he could never speak to the Scottish heart, it appeared – and he allowed us all to infer – that he did not care. He was too busy to keep the country together. He had more important things to do.

I think he's wrong there.

Cameron's mistake wasn't keeping out of the argument. That was probably his only smart move, because, well, you can't help but vote against Cameron, can you. Most of the Britons voting in 2010 voted against him, after all, and the Scots would naturally have done the same, because the man simply cries out to be voted against.

His mistake was telling the Scots it had to be a YES / NO referendum, with no option for enhanced devolution. That, understandably, got a lot of people's backs up and as a result is prompting them to vote yes to independence.

After all, who (to use Cameron's favoured marriage metaphor) who would want to stay in a relation with such an arrogant, high handed buffoon?

And while on the topic of marriage, it's very weird that Cameron is tearfully threatening Scotland with a permanent divorce if they vote for independence now.

Why should that be? What's to stop the separate nations reunifying in the future, if both parties are willing? It happened before, after all.

He really is a dick.

Britain - doomed?

No, not because the unruly Scots won't learn to behave, but because useless Tories are in charge. Trade deficits are running at near record levels and this is not a good thing.

With the trade deficit widening, growth slowing, and unemployment still high, house prices still rising (but more slowly - which in itself is another worrying sign), we're doomed, frankly, and we might as well face up to it.

The trade in goods deficit – exports minus imports – widened to £10.2bn from £9.4bn in June, disappointing City expectations that the deficit would narrow to £9.1bn. 

It was almost matched the largest monthly deficit on record, which was £10.3bn in April 2012. 

The broader trade in goods and services deficit also widened in July, to £3.3bn from £2.5bn in June. The Office for National Statistics data showed a larger goods deficit in July driven by a £1.3bn rise in imports to £34.2bn, outpacing a £500m increase in exports to £24bn. 

Rising imports of fuel, chemicals and aircraft drove the deficit higher, while the rise in exports was driven by oil trade with non-EU countries and pharmaceutical exports. 

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research thinktank estimated separately that the UK economy grew by 0.6% in the three months to the end of August, suggesting the rate of growth is starting to slow.

Britain has been running a trade deficit for decades, of course, but the scale of it is the concern here.  It is simply too much, sustained for too great a period.  And Tories are in charge.  Which means it is time to buy beans and head for the hills.

(It's worth noting that the rise in exports was partly driven by oil sales - which belong to Scotland, of course.  Which might explain why the establishment is so fervently opposed to independence.  The Tories would rather have oil + 40 odd Scottish Labour MPs, than a Conservative hegemony over an utterly ruined, bankrupt country called England.  At least with oil, they can carry on keeping up appearances a little while longer. )

It's almost like exporting 90% of the manufacturing sector, closing don traditional heavy industries and failing to invest in modern light alternatives, neglecting potential growth markets in renewable energy tech and so on wasn't such a smart idea.  It is hard to run an economy based on serving coffee with flair and answering telephones.  Especially as it is cheaper to do the latter from India.

Still, it isn't all bad. Economists are still getting things wrong, so at least some of the Eternal Verities are intact.

And, yes, I know, I am relying on these same economists for the forecast of slowing growth.  Which makes me a hypocrite and a Bad Man.

Am I turning Tory?

Either I'm becoming old and conservative, or Peter Hitchens is starting to become less deranged, or something like that.

No matter.  In a shocking development, the Mail has actually printed a referendum story that isn't actually anti-independence. Further portents of the apocalypse are imminently expected.

Okay, it is only a opinion column, and it is more about how shoddy the 'No' campaign has been and about how Europe = evil, but it is a start. After running about a dozen anti-independence stories every day, we should be grateful for this limited acknowledgement that other opinions exist.

There must be some rule somewhere that at least 1% of the stories must cover an alternate viewpoint ...

Ultimate weapon

The 'No' camp have deployed Gordon Brown.

I suppose, after saving the world, preserving the union should be an afternoon's work for the Great Man.

File under Scottish independence, further musings on

If you thought the New Zealand media was biased, you should have a look at the way the Daily Mail is covering the referendum on Scottish independence.

Today, there are EIGHT different stories on the Mail's webiste on the issue. Yesterday, I counted NINE.  They are all anti-Independence, and stridently so.  They are full of apocalyptic warnings and resort to personal attacks on Alex Salmond - and his wife (OMG!  His wife is 17 years older than he is!  Vote for the Union!).

(The Mail has a lot of form for targetting spouses - I'm sure I recall in the run up to the 2010 election, they featured a story in which they compared the attractiveness of the FEET of the partners of the main party leaders.  Yes, you read that right.  Their feet!  Probably, motivated by entirely objective journalism and nothing to do with humiliating Sarah Brown for having a crushed toe.)

I suspect the Powers That Be have realised Cameron will be totally diminished if he becomes the Prime Minister who oversaw the break up of the union.  It ill destroy the credibility of the Conservative party and - contrary to the claim that it will skew the elections south of the border in favour of the Conservatives, they will be out of power for years to come.  Even Ed Milliband will look statesman like compared to the Man Who Lost Scotland.

As independence is looking like a distinct possibility, Mass Panic is resulting in the right wing media. Which, ironically, will probably harden the Independence vote as I don't think many Scots will appreciate being told what to do by the English Mail.

Like all Scots, I'm phlegmatic on the issue.  Given a straight choice between independence and union, I' m probably more in favour of it than I am against it. I'd prefer enhanced devolution, but I don't trust Tories to deliver on vague, panicked promises.

So we might as well get it over with and whatever pain comes, comes. Obviously, the pain is academic for me, but my (staunchly Tory) family live in Scotland and are viewing the referendum as some sort of apocalypse.