A new 'centrist' party?

It's a day ending in 'Y' so that means there must be some new feverish speculation about the British Labour Party splitting.

Today it comes courtesy of The Guardian, a paper with a proud record of taking any possible negative story about Corbyn and blowing up into a supposed crisis in his leadership:

Intense discussions are taking place at Westminster that could lead to the emergence of a new centrist party consisting of six or more disaffected anti-Brexit Labour MPs along with the involvement of some Conservatives and the backing of the Liberal Democrats.

Labour MPs reported that some of those involved had lobbied backbench colleagues they thought were sympathetic as to how they could “make the shift” away from a tribal loyalty to the party.

The argument put forward was that the set of values that had drawn them to the Labour party, such as European solidarity, free movement, liberalism and anti-racism, could now be found elsewhere.

Those involved in the talks say frustrations over pro-Brexit policies pursued by Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May, coupled with Labour-specific concerns about antisemitism, have taken a handful of MPs to the point where they are seriously considering quitting.

Prima facie, it's a totally stupid idea, but we are talking about the masterminds behind the Chicken Coup, here, so who knows what acts of fresh self-immolation they are capable of?

Is there any appetite for a new 'centrist' party ('centrist' generally means right wing, in my experience).  I'd say there isn't much.  We've had the Lib Dems for decades. What can a new party offer that the Lib Dems can't?

The combined vote for Labour and the Tories in 2017 was 82.4%, with a moderately impressive 68.8% of the electorate casting votes. Contrast with previous elections:

2015 - 67.3% (66.4% turnout)
2010 - 65.1% (65.1%)
2005 - 67.6% (61.4%)
2001 - 72.4% (59.4%)
1997 - 73.9% (71.3%)
1991 - 76.3% (77.7%)
1987 - 73% (75.3%)
1983 - 70% (72.7%)
1977 - 80.08% (76%)
1974 (Oct) - 75% (72.8)
1974 (Feb) - 75.1% (78.8%)
1970 - 89.5% (72%)

So I don't think there is any evidence that there is a hunger for a third party, in the form of the Lib Dems or another party. If there was, why would more people be voting Tory or Labour than at any time since 1970?

Just wanting something to be true doesn't make it true.

Now let's look at there reasons for wanting to split.  Disatisfaction over Brexit is mentioned by the Guardian.  This certainly sounds like the reasoning of the Chicken Coupers.  Never mind the referendum result, clearly the British people got it wrong and - just like the Labout party membership in 2016-7 - have to be told to think again.  And not the heroic refusal to accept realities.  Somehow, half a dozen 'centrist' MPs will stop Brexit, although somehow they can't from within the Labour Party.  Perhaps their powers will be mysteriously amplified when they find themselves a new name and logo.  Perhaps they imagine they will see off the overwhelming hordes, like the Spartans at Thermopylae.

(Only, as nay fule kno, the Spartans didn't do that; they just got killed.)

Recall, of course, that these turbulent MPs were elected on the 2017 manifesto, which accepted the referendum result and sought a soft Brexit.  Were they lying when they endorsed the manifesto and stood for election?

If so, why should we trust them now?

Any attempt to resolve Brexit has to be one that Parliament will support; half a dozen MPs calling themselves 'centrists' can't achieve anything unless they have a plan that will win the support of large numbers of Labour and Conservative MPs.  I don't think they have such a plan.  I don't thin they have any idea at all.

As for anti-Semitism ... Under Corbyn's leadership there has been the Chakrabarti Inquiry; anti-Semitism is now, for the first time, mentioned in the party rule book as an expellable offense (previously it only mentioned the much vaguer 'bringing the party into disrepute'); the IHRA definition of anti-Semitism has been adopted in full, including the flawed examples.  Hundreds of members have been suspended, investigated and many expelled for anti-Semitic acts.  Yet still the claim that Labour is not doing enough is repeated.  So what does 'enough' look like?  What do they actually want the party to do.

The answer to that is, of course, what ever has been done, plus some more.  Because this isn't about anti-Semitism in Labour, any more than it is about Brexit.  It's about a particular strand of the party that is still struggling its way through the stages of grief.  After almost four years stuck in denial, now we seem to be entering the angry phase.  Denied the power they think is theirs by right, denied by those pesky members who think they know better than the PPE graduate inheritors of Blair, they are taking their toys and going home.

The Brexit Party

Nigel Farage has set up a new political vehicle to drive his ego about in. With startling originality, he's called it The Brexit Party.

 Interesting timing. You'd have thought they would have waited until after Brexit to see if it was necessary. Doing it now suggests some people of the ERG-Farage persuasion don't think an acceptable (i.e. hard-as-nails) Brexit is going to happen and are getting things 'in hand'.

432-202

So, that worked out well for Theresa May.

I wonder if she is anticipating a discrete visit from some men in gray suits?

The woman has more lives than a cat. She should have gone after the 2017 election disaster. After Grenfell. After the conference fiasco. After failing to put her deal before parliament in December last year. Somehow she manages to cling on to office, if not to power. That slipped through her fingers quite some time ago.

This is an entirely self inflicted calamity, from beginning to end. A better deal was available. Endless better deals were available. The EU have been perfectly aware that there is a real risk their 'problem child' might actually follow through on its threat; they have negotiated in as much good faith as one possibly can with people who think that "Brexit means Brexit," "No deal is better than a bad deal" and "Red, white and blue Brexit" are useful contributions to any sort of a debate.

It didn't help when May painted herself into a corner with all her red lines and - as yesterday demonstrated - has signally failed to actually convince her own party of the merits of her case. May's peculiar genius has been to craft such an awful deal that even her own frit party can't bring themselves to support it.

I think it is hysterically funny that she delayed voting in the hope of avoiding defeat. Clearly, she has no idea about the mood of her party, and neither do her whips. They actually thought they would be able to argue, bribe or bully a few rebels into line. They had no idea just how utterly without credibility she is, and how despised her deal is.

The woman seems to have a remarkable ability to make things worse for herself by wasting time. In 2017 she triggered Article 50, then decided to lose time with her vanity election; now, facing defeat on her deal in December, she prevaricated, delayed, and finally went down to defeat. I feel a bit like Corbyn's internal enemies must have felt in the second half of 2016, in the throes of the Chicken Coup: "Why the Hell won't you just take the hint and go?"

Don't ever, anyone, accuse Corbyn or Labour of wasting parliament's time with the Motion of No Confidence. We could have done all this before Christmas, if May had the guts and any sort of awareness of what was actually going on in her party.

Holy Crap!

I've been doing this for almost 12 years! That's quite impressive, even if I do say so myself.  Like Theresa May, I impress not with my skill at what I do, but that I persist in doing when all around me would prefer me to stop.

(That's probably not a fair comparison.  I suspect all around me wouldn't even notice whatever I did.)

Still, 'twas not always thus.  I used to shake the foundations of the Heavens with my postings.  Highlights?

• Probably blogging about Louis Rawnsley, which - in a tiny, tiny way - contributed to him getting a payout from TVNZ.

• Ranting about Mohammed Haneef, which probably made no difference to him, but seemed to be an occasion where I was a bit ahead of the mainstream media.

• Commenting on the Urewera Raids, where I managed to be saner than a lot of people on the left.

•  And getting referred to as "A traditional enemy of truth" by David Irving. When a Holocaust denier hates you, you know you must be doing something right.

As that beardy chappie once said, "The philosophers have only interpreted the world, in various ways; the point is to change it." I have signally failed to do either.  More effort required.

I'll try to actually post a bit more in future.  After all the world, incomprehensibly, has not put itself to rights just because I said it should.

MP mobbed by thugs

So, MP Anna Sourby has been harassed and abused as she walked to parliament.



Note I haven't mentioned the politican convictions of the MP or the people abusing her. It isn't relevant. It isn't about this person or that person's opinions. It doesn't matter if it is Anna Sourby been harassed by people who support Brexit, or Nigel Farage getting forced to take refuge in an Edinburgh pub. Or Steven Joyce having a sex toy thrown at him. It's all wrong. It's bullying and harassment. It's about tribalism and a lack of respect for others. It's insane how tribal politics seems to strip some people of even the basics of decency.

Let's also note this is a group of angry, aggressive men following and surrounding a lone woman. And I think it will be mostly men engaging in this sort of threatening, intimidating behaviour. That's beyond creepy.

And what is with the mobile phones? They are mobbing her, filming every step, trying to provoke a reaction, presumably without her consent.

Would anyone want this happening to their mother / daughter / wife / sister?

Or their father / son / husband / brother?

This seems to be a real thing that is real

If Twitter existed in the 1980s, when climate change was just creeping into public consciousness, this degree of cluelessness might - MIGHT - have been forgivable.  In 2018, however ...

DeFazio on climate: "This is the existential threat to the future of the planet."

Insanity.

For comparison, the atmosphere Venus is 96.5% CO2 -- and the planet is still there.

In contrast, Earth's atmosphere is only ~0.04% CO2. https://t.co/SvScU32iZG via @politico

— Steve Milloy (@JunkScience) 15 December 2018

It is genuine. The source is a climate obsessive who posts things like, "Funny... millennial climate bedwetting trolls have spent all weekend trying to 'ratio' me because of this tweet. They should instead spend their time learning why CO2 is good and communism is bad."

RIP Pete Shelley