Prediction

There's nothing stupider on the internet than putting down your thoughts in an indisputable form.  So that, of course is what I am going to do:


NAT – 42%
LAB – 39%
NZF – 8%
GRE – 6%
TOP – 2%
MAO – 1.5% (With electorate win(s))
MAN – 0.5% (With electorate win)
ACT – 0.5% (With electorate win)
UNF – 0.5%

Sadly, I don't see Labour riding Jacindamania to victory.  National are banging the TAX-FEAR drum very loudly and it will have its usual effect.  A combination of unforgivable unpreparedness on Labour's part, Ardern's gutsy but naive 'Captain's call' on tax, and some bloodyminded mischief from the Greens will probably see Blundering Bill home.

The Greens will (hopefully) avoid the chop.  I'll do my own little bit for them, though resentfully, for any party that is as tactically incompetent as they have been probably deserves oblivion; but I'll sullenly and resentfully give them my party vote because the environment is more important than them or me.

My wild card is Te Tai Tokerau.  I'm going to say Hone Harawira will surprise everyone by reclaiming the seat.  I've got no evidence to support this whatsoever, and I merely proffer the idea in the spirit of mischief.  Davis has been busy doing other things (like confusing everyone over Labour's tax policy) and may not have given his narrow majority enough TLC to fend off Mana, without the Maori Party splitting the vote.