Inside the Downing Street bunker

James Forsyth at The Spectator (I know, I know) has tapped one of his contacts inside Number Ten for an insight into the Johnson administration's thinking and strategy.

It is fascinating, unsettling and quite, quite mad.  Some key points:

• Negotiations have stalled and the Johnson administration are keen to blame the EU: "Varadkar was keen on talking before the Benn Act when he thought that the choice would be ‘new deal or no deal’. Since the Benn Act passed he has gone very cold ..."; of course, it has nothing to do with the Johnson administration wasting everyone's time, acting in bad faith and proposing a ludicrous alternative to the vexed Irish Backstop.

• It is all the fault of the Germans Boche and the French Frogs: "There are quite a few people in Paris and Berlin who would like to discuss our offer but Merkel and Macron won’t push Barnier unless Ireland says it wants to negotiate." This is like reading the story of Brexit as re-told by Commando Comics; which, now I think about it, is a very apt description of how the Johnson administration is approaching the whole thing.

• The Euro-meanies and the Remoaners are conspiring to Do Britain Down, but they will be shown up in time by British pluck and cold hard steel, which has always seen of their Continental guile: "Ireland and Brussels listen to all the people who lost the referendum, they don’t listen to those who won the referendum and they don’t understand the electoral dynamics here."

• The Johnson administration really is intent on going full steam ahead into the iceberg, because they are more scared of Nigel Farage than they are of ruining the country: "To marginalise the Brexit Party, we will have to fight the election on the basis of ‘no more delays, get Brexit done immediately’."; never mind the arguments about 17.2 million voters, this is about one man. Oddly, their plan for stopping him is to do exactly what he wants, which seems a bit silly, but they aren't interested in what is better for Britain here - it is simple psychopathic careerism. Cock up, blame everyone else and hope that people will fall for it so you don't lose your job.

• The Johnson administration intends to Subvert the 'Benn Bill' to prevent delaying Brexit: "Our legal advice is clear that we can do all sorts of things to scupper delay which for obvious reasons we aren’t going into details about."; one wonders if this 'legal advice' springs from the same mind that told them proroguing parliament for five weeks was legal, and that they could win court cases without presenting sworn affidavits?

• They will use bribes and threats to try to get the EU to vote against offering a further extension: "We will make clear privately and publicly that countries which oppose delay will go the front of the queue for future cooperation — cooperation on things both within and outside EU competences. Those who support delay will go to the bottom of the queue."; so,having failed to win any intellectual arguments, they will resort to bullying - "within and outside EU competences" is particularly ominous.

• The EU offering something that has been requested by the British PM acting on the instructions of the British parliament is "hostile interference in domestic politics, and over half of the public will agree with us"; presumably they will apply the same 'logic' to any attempt to form treaties or agreements in the future. And the cynical statement that the public will agree with them reveals they are intent on plunging even further down the Faragist populist bullshit rabbit hole. All, you know, to stop Farage.

• They actually still think this is all about them: "We will also make clear that this government will not negotiate further so any delay would be totally pointless. They think now that if there is another delay we will keep coming back with new proposals. This won’t happen." Hate to break it to you, guys and girls, but people are now hoping that it won't be "we" coming back with new proposals.

• They will take their toys and go home: "Any delay will in effect be negotiated between you, Parliament, and the courts — we will wash our hands of it, we won’t engage in further talks, we obviously won’t given any undertakings about cooperative behaviour, everything to do with ‘duty of sincere cooperation’ will be in the toilet, we will focus on winning the election on a manifesto of immediately revoking the entire EU legal order without further talks, and then we will leave." Yes, gentle reader, they actually think the courts and parliament are somehow irrelevant obstacles in all this, not the things that give them legitimacy. Heads up! If the courts say your are doing illegal stuff, it means lack legitimacy; if parliament refuses to back you, you lack legitimacy. You will not have the authority to put anything in the toilet. And for all their eager talk of elections, there is one simple way to get one - request an extension so an election can be held without the country falling out of the EU by default. But the Fear of Farage is overwhelming, and they can not bring themselves to do that Very Obvious Thing.

• They are deluded: "Those who pushed the Benn Act intended to sabotage a deal and they’ve probably succeeded." No, your bad faith negotiations, posturing and hopeless alternative' to the Irish Backstop killed a deal. Which you probably knew all along it would. The ferocity of the pro-No Deal language in this whole message reveals the lie in this weak attempt to pass the blame.

It is worth keeping in mind this might be what the 'strategic geniuses' WANT us to think they are planning.

But, nah.  I'm going with this actually being what they are planning - for want of a better word.

Are GNUs extinct?

Another round of tactical talks about forming a Government of National Unity have come to nothing with the Liberal Democrats still refusing countenance putting Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street:

Opposition talks on Monday made little headway over when to try and vote down Boris Johnson's government and who might succeed him as prime minister.

Labour said the Lib Dems were being "irresponsible" in refusing to back a temporary Jeremy Corbyn-led government.

But Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson said he did not have wide enough support.

The SNP called on the other two parties to "grow up" and warned that time was running out to stop the UK leaving the EU on 31 October.

The Lib Dems and the pro-Remain Independents and TIG4C (henceforth, "the Lib Dems") are being idiots over this. It is senseless. There is no logical reason not to throw their weight behind a Corbyn candidacy.

If Corbyn GENUINELY does not have the number then it could be proven in Parliament by simply having a VOC. But they know that - with their backing - he would win that (Tories + DUP = 298) and they don't want that. So they are making fantastical claims about some mythical 'number' he needs and can not achieve and insist that he 'step aside' for some equally mythical unity candidate that they can not even identify, far less demonstrate that this unicorn of a candidate has the 'numbers.'

They say they don't want Brexit, but talk is cheap. Actions speak louder. The Lib Dems are exaggerating their anti-Brexit credentials as a unique selling point but fundamentally don't seems to actually intend to live up to their rhetoric.

They've nicely put themselves into a position where they are either going to have enable No Deal Brexit, or renege on their loud talk about being unable to support Corbyn under any circumstances, or have to sit sullenly on the sidelines while Labour actually go about trying to do the thing the Lib Dems have been saying they really, really want to do.

Any of those scenarios leaves them looking like posturing clowns playing politics and not even doing that well; diminished, irrelevant, mealy-mouthed and ineffective.

Guardian: Poll shows DISASTER for Corbyn and the End of Times

The Guardian - ever eager to forewarn of doom and disaster on the left - are leading with a new poll from Opinium, which puts the Conservatives 15% clear of Labour.

Con 38% +2
Lab 23% -1
Lib Dem 15% -5
Brexit 12% +1
Green 4% +2

This isn't good news, and it would be very bad news if it wasn't Opinium; they consistently give the Conservatives large leads; the largest, indeed.  Looking at recent polling (i.e. September to present moment), here's how the different companies compare:

Large Tory leads (6% or over in majority of included polls):

• You Gov (leads range from 7% to 14%, 7 polls included)
• Opinium (Leads range from 10% to 15%, 5 polls)
• Kantar (Leads of 14%, 1 poll)
• Ipsos Mori (Lead of 9%, 1 poll)

Small Tory Leads (5% or less in majority of included polls):

• Panelbase (Lead of 3%, 1 poll)
• ComRes (Leads range from TIE to 4%, 5 polls)
• Survation (Leads range from 3% to 5%, 2 polls)
• Deltapoll (Lead of 3%, 1 poll; BUT a poll released 31/8 gave a Conservative lead of 11%!; make of that what you will.)

(BMG are also included in Britain Elects' table but don't seem to have released a September poll.)

So, from that, what can we conclude?  Nothing.  The polls are all over the place but at least individual pollsters seem to be finding fairly consistent results.  Someone is definitely wrong, and it is just about possible everyone is.

Clever legal fellow on Scottish challenge to Brexit

I make no claims to having much legal knowledge,  so I defer to those trained in this area.

I am very much enjoying this twitter stream from m'learned friend in Edinburgh, deciphering the legal arguments around the Scottish court challenge to Boris Johnson, based on the charmingly obscure principle of Nobile Officium.

Court returns. O’Neill rises to continue the case for the petitioners, that action should be taken to ensure Boris Johnson abides by the law passed by Parliament on Brexit.

— Michael Gray (@GrayInGlasgow) 4 October 2019

My favourite bit this far:

I’m enjoying sceptical Lord Pentland.
Pentland to Webster: ‘You’re not suggesting that the law officers of the UK Government are not subject to the same standards as all citizens to make representations to this court?’
UKGov failing to fully engage not going down well, it seems.

— Michael Gray (@GrayInGlasgow) 4 October 2019

Ouch!

I also enjoy the occasional images of Edinburgh and references to drunken escapades on the Cowgate, which remind me of my own mispent youth in that most wonderful of cities.

Jermey Corbyn, I don't like GNU (sorry)

So, the latest ruminations on the gnews from Westminster (Again, sorry; I'll stop making that pun right now).  This follows on from, and likely repeats bits of, my last post, on the suggestion that a Government of National Unity (GNU) should be set up and then oversee a referendum before calling an election.

You will recall, gentle reader, that I am not in favour of this ideas as the GNU simply won't have the numbers to survive that long, nor to deal with any governance issues, and because if it lasts more than a few weeks it will taint those involved, strengthening the Tories for the subsequent election. Remember all those jibes and sneers at Johnson as an 'unelected' PM with no mandate? Can you imagine how much more vicious they would be, aimed at a GNU cobbled together from multiple parties 'with the sole aim of overturning the will of the people'? Cummings would love to be able to run that attack line for six months before a referendum, and then (having won the referendum) for the subsequent election.

I admit there is a risk in the election then referendum strategy - what if the Conservatives run on an anti-EU platform and win a majority? Then they could cancel the referendum outright. Hopefully, the GNU / EU will see that coming and in their agreement will stipulate that a second referendum must be held during the extension ... effectively giving an indefinite extension period if the referendum is cancelled.

Nobody on the Remain side can command a majority. Otherwise they would already be PM.

Corbyn is closer, by virtue of having the Labour Party behind him. Any other candidate will be starting from much further back and - after all this talk about how not voting for Corbyn because he "doesn't have the numbers" (conveniently forgetting that "the numbers" are nebulous) - would need to be able to demonstrate they "have the numbers" before they can anticipate support from Labour; which makes it impossible, since Labour has over a third of the MPs and most of them are going to support a Corbyn bid.

I think the Lib Dems have done an impressive job of shooting themselves in the foot over this - an, unfortunately, possibly shot all of us in the foot as well.

This is what I think will happen:

• VONC / failure of the Queen's Speech once parliament resumes. 14 day count down to an election commences ...
• Attempt by Corbyn to set up a GNU. Gets 280 votes and is voted down by the Tories and DUP. Independents and Lib Dems abstain / vote against. - Attempt to set up a Clarke led GNU. Gets about 150 votes.
• Possibly other attempts to set up a GNU under other candidates. All the time, the clock is ticking. None get more than 200 votes.  Maybe 250, depending on how flakey Labour MPs are.
• Second attempt to set up a Corbyn GNU. This time, some of the more nervous (or responsible) Lib Dems and / or Independents vote in favour, with an eye on the clock. It gets 300 votes. Crucially, a few less fanatical Conservatives abstain / are mysteriously absent and the vote against is only about 290. Corbyn is PM!

Interestingly, once he is installed, I think things may become slightly easier. the Lib Dems / Independents can say, "We think this is a really rotten idea and we wish it was someone else, but we will try to work constructively with the new administration and make sure it remains (pun intentional) on track to agree an extension and pass the referendum legislation.)

Reckon Jo's gonna decide to ride Jerry's GNU at the last minute?

Now, I need to get something off my chest here.

At heart I am a Remainer. I can see no purpose in leaving the EU. I've always accepted Labour's position that the country voted for Brexit (because it did) and that any Brexit should do the least damage to the country and people's jobs as possible (because people voted to leave the EU, not trash the economy, make themselves unemployed and tear the already frayed social fabric to pieces - that wasn't on the voting paper.) I've welcomeed their painstaking moves towards supporting a second referendum pitching Remain against a new soft Brexit deal.

Contrast that with the Conservative's Titanicesque intent on crashing the coutnry out of the EU in four weeks time, or the Lib Dem's intention to give the electorate the finger and ignore the referendum. Labour's policy has always been the only sane one in the room, which is why it has been hated on by both extremes.

Suppose some miracle lead to Article 50 being revoked tomorrow. Would that end Euroscepticism as we know it? Nope, it would just carry on as before, with Farage demanding a new referendum and so on and on until they got it. If it was a bad horror B movie, it would be the Revenge of the Night of Nigel Farage.

Suppose we got a Hard Brexit / No Deal. Would that be the end of it? Nope, because we know that is going to screw up the country for the next twenty five years, and we'll probably end up rejoining and having to take the Euro and all the other things we're currently opted out of. At which point the Son of the Night of Nigel Farage pops up and starts campaigning to leave.

Whereas a shoddy, half-assed Brexit was always the sensible option that left everyone disappointed but at least feeling the other side hadn't won. Human nature being what it is, we don't mind losing - its the sense that someone else has won that pisses us off. So a sort-of Brexit means everyone thinks they've lost and feels somewhat unhappy in a typically British sort of way, but not narked to the point they want to kick the can of worms over again might have been the least rotten outcome, unless we really want this dire soap opera to run into another season.

GNUs move VERY slowly

In the hours since my last interminable wittering about the possibility of a Government of National Unity (GNU) in Britain, there has been a slight maybe development:

A Corbyn-led caretaker government could then sit for several months while it enacted and delivered a referendum with the support of smaller parties and rebel Tories, several MPs suggested. 

An election would only then follow, probably next spring. Another option would be for a ‘government of national unity’ to sit while the referendum legislation is passed. 

Corbyn listened to the advice of the PLP but did not say he agreed with it. His position has been that he thinks an extension of Article 50 is a priority to stop a no-deal exit, followed quickly by a general election. 

“It was the most united PLP we’ve had in months,” said one present.

Which seems to reflect a strengthening of Corbyn's position, if he has the PLP more-or-less behind him (which must be a novel situation for him, and them).

Well, I'm glad that some progress is being made, albeit at a snail's pace. In about another thousand years, they might finally get ther heads around the idea that a Corbyn lead GNU is the most practical option ... though I must add my breath, while I wait, is resolutely unbated.

The tactical / short term problem with this idea is the numbers are so dreadful it would be almost impossible to do anything in the interim. We'd have six to nine months of endless Brexitry, with the government - for want of a better word - unable to actually do anything about the many ills afflicting the nation. That would REALLY taint Corbyn and Labour.

From a purely strategic perspective, it would also give the Tories a chance to regroup and rebuild. I quite like the idea of Johnson being bounced out of office and then forced to face the country. If they manage to get their act together, and a protracted build up to a new referendum has embittered people against the GNU, then it is possible to imagine the Tories profiting in a summer election.

Parliamentary number crunching [Very sexy]

So,   more on the possibility of a Government of National Unity (GNU) in Britain, which is once more exercising Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson.

Ms Swinson, who declined to be interviewed by Sky News alongside the other leaders, has said she would only support a compromise candidate for PM like Tory grandee Kenneth Clarke or Labour veteran Dame Margaret Beckett.

"He simply does not have the numbers," Ms Swinson said after the meeting.

"I have been crystal clear but I will do so again - Jeremy Corbyn is not going into Number 10 on the basis of Liberal Democrats' votes."

The numbers in parliament make things very difficult.  Anyone who is saying X will happen or Y is impossible is spinning.  I'm looking at you here, Jo.

We can not tell and will not know until votes are actually cast.  And possibly more than one round of increasingly fraught voting, as brinkmanship is exposed and people have to choose between what they do not like and what frankly terrifies them.

Here are the numbers in parliament:

Conservative Party - 288
Labour Party - 246
Scottish National Party - 35
Liberal Democrats - 18
Democratic Unionist Party - 10
The Independent Group for Change - 5
Plaid Cymru - 4
Green Party - 1
Independent - 35

(Sinn Fein have 7 MPs but they do not take their seats.)

Insanely, as it stands, no party can command a majority. This is why Johnson can't win a vote (currently at 0-7, probably the worst losing streak in government history.)  Even coalitions are problematic, with 3-4 party combinations needed to get to the 'magic number' needed to command an outright majority.

(More on the 'Magic number' later.)

At the moment, parliament can't even vote to put itself out of its own misery, via a general election, because Johnson won't ask the EU for an election and the opposition parties won't trigger one without this guarantee.

The numbers don't make a GNU easy.  Looking at a Corbyn lead option, first ...

A coalition of Labour , SNP, Lib Dems, Greens, PC and half of the independents gets to 322, which is the actual number needed to command a majority with the Speaker and SF not voting (though the Speaker would be obligated to vote with the government in the event of a tie.)

(That's assuming TIG4C do not support the GNU, even though they are meant to be fervent Remainers.  Their hatred of Corbyn runs very, very deep.)

Excluding the Lib Dems and the independent MPs, Labour, the SNP, PC and Greens can get to 286, just behind the Conservative Party.

But the idea of a Corbyn lead GNU has proven problematic.  The SNP and Greens have said they will support it.  Assuming Plaid Cymru are also amenable, that gets the coalition to 286.  But the Lib Dems and the Conservative rebels have said they won't support a Corbyn led GNU and want him to step aside for another 'less divisive' candidate.

The problem with that is any candidate that is 'less divisive' for the Lib Dems and Conservative rebels will be a very hard sell to Labour MPs.  They are by no means 100% behind the party's declared policy of a second referendum, or even behind its previous position of a soft Brexit.  There aren't too many Hard Brexit headbangers in Labour, but there are a couple; and there are a lot more Eurosceptics of various degrees of virulence (including, of course, Jeremy Corbyn) and others who will be thinking long and hard about where to position themselves, having looked at how their constituency voted in the referendum, and the mood of their local party.

Whereas the numbers for non-Corbyn lead coalition are more nebulous. Sure, you'll get the Lib Dems, the SNP and so on, and let's say you get TIG and ALL the independents. That gets you to 102.

102.

How many Labour MPs are going to agree to put another Conservative MP into Downing Street?  Particularly if the Conservatives and Lib Dems have refused to vote for Corbyn?

Even if the bulk of the party does - sullenly - vote for a Clarke (or whoever) lead GNU, Labour MPs who support leave probably won't. Based on the 'indicative votes' held earlier in the year, that's between 10 and 30 MPs who are opposed to soft Brexit or a second referendum.  If it is 10, then the GNU works. If it is 30, it is tantalisingly close, but still short of a definite majority.

Again, it could work - Labour leavers might be persuaded to abstain, or more Tories might desert to support a non-Corbyn GNU. But it is all very sketchy, and anyone claiming one side or the other does or does not have the numbers is spinning. We won't know until votes are cast, possibly several rounds of them.

What is the 'magic number' needed to govern, anyway?

It is not 326, which is half the number of MPs in the house.  You need to knock off SF's 7 MPs.  That gets you 322.  But even that isn't the number needed, because votes are passed on a majority of the MPs who are present to vote, not the absolute majority of all MPs.

Not one of the indicative votes involved more than 600 MPs voting.  The far more critical Benn Act still saw 21 MPs mysteriously absent or abstain.  You can get along with far fewer than 322, though it does make things trickier.

All of which gets us no further forward that we were at the beginning of this long and - I admit it, very unsexy - post.

Which begs many questions - will they (Libs and Cons) stick to their "Not Corbyn" position even if it means crashing out on the 31st? Will Corbyn? What is the 'magic number' anyway? Do Labour really need the Libs and Cons to get to it?  Would enough Labour MPs support an alternative GNU for it to work?

The more I think about it, I am thinking that Corbyn should simply go for the VONC, defy the Lib Dems and Con Remainers to stop him, and see if he can run a short term government focused on getting a delay and a second referendum in spite of them.

It would be amusingly ironic if the Liberal Democrats - the party that have consistently opposed Brexit in all forms - managed to exclude themselves from stopping it. Which would destroy them with their voters in the subsequent election.