Tuesday, 15 June 2010

Italy 1 - Paraguay 1

Italy and Paraguay fight out a low scoring draw (1). Interesting.

This might increase the All Whites chance of a totally unexpected entry to the second round, as it suggests the pool will be really tight and a bit of luck might get them there.

Or it might mean they'll get hammered to a pulp as the other three teams go all out to qualify on the 'Who gets most goals past New Zealand' rule.
1 - "Italy-Paraguay match report," by Chris Bevan. Published by the BBC, 15th of June, 2010. (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/world_cup_2010/matches/match_11/default.stm).

Thursday, 10 June 2010

They say every cloud has a silver lining

Surveying the dismal choice of candidates for the Labour leadership, I've managed to find at least one positive aspect - once again the superior efficiency of socialism is demonstrated.

Think about it - Labour has gone straight from its John Major to its Iain Duncan Smith, without wasting time with the William Hague interregnum. It took Tories years to find the bottom of their leadership barrel and scrape it clean. Labour have achieved the same in a month.

Ed Miliband should win comfortably. The other figures are all too divisive, and though they'll have strong support from different factions, Ed Miliband will pick up the second choice votes, even if he isn't anyone's first choice. Which will mean another decade of scheming, squabbling and disunity as the candidates who think they should have won try to undermine him.

Ye Gods ...

The candidates who will contest for the leadership of the Labour Party (1) are ...
Diane Abbott
Ed Balls
Andy Burnham
David Miliband
Ed Miliband
Seriously, WTF? What dreadful pass have we come to? This is the best Labour can muster?

The unions and the general membership should rise up and lynch the parliamentary party for nominating such an insipid bunch. the right of the party worked furiously to keep John McDonnell off the ballot, because they knew he might - just might win enough support in the unions and the party to force the self serving parliamentary members to acknowledge him. So Diane Abbott - DIANNE ABBOTT - is, in all seriousness, being put up as a credible candidate.

How did the party of Keir Hardie, Clem Attlee, Ernest Bevin and Aneurin Bevan come to this? A choice between four rightwing careerists, all tainted by their association with the last regime - the one rejected by Labour voters a month ago - and a fool who thinks homeopathic 'remedies' should be available on the NHS.

Who will win? David Cameron, of course.
1 - "Diane Abbott makes it on to Labour leadership ballot," by Helene Mulholland. Published in The Guardian, 9th of June, 2010. (http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/jun/09/diane-abbott-makes-it-on-to-labour-leadership-ballot)

Tuesday, 8 June 2010

Labour madness

It looks like neither Dianne Abbot, nor John McDonnell will get the backing they need to contend the Labour leadership (1). They need support from 33 MPs to get on the ballot paper, but Abbot has eight nominations, and McDonnell has ten.

I don't think Abbot is a serious contender, but McDonnell is. He's got a lot of support in the trade unions and his stanch on Iraq and social issues would appeal to the general membership, but there's little support for him in the parliamentary party.

While it is a valid point that a leader needs to be be supported by the people he leads, McDonnell's woes highlight the shift in the Labour party away from its roots as a union and people's party to a parliamentary affair - the parliamentary party obviously think that they know best who should be allowed to contest the leadership.

A contest between those candidates will be one that isn't viewed as legitimate, as the membership won't be allowed to vote for candidates it wants to, but choose between the candidates the parliamentary party thinks it should be offered. So the new leader will not enjoy the support of the party as a whole, and the decline in membership and support will not stop.

McDonnell's colleagues in the parliamentary party don't seem to recognize the reason they are currently sitting on the opposition benches is, partly, attributable to the likes of Ed Balls and the Miliband brothers, who have already secured enough nominations, and Andy Burnham, who will probably get there - though as he brings nothing different to the contest, it won't be any loss if he doesn't.

It's also worth noting that the parliamentary part were hardly a model of loyalty or support to for Gordon Brown while he was prime minister, and this continual politicking and knavery contributed to the defeat. The problem, it seems, isn't so much the leader but the parliamentary party itself. it's stuffed with opportunistic careerists. McDonnell, at least, can not be accused of putting his career ahead of principles.

Asking people to choose between candidates associated with the blunders of the last government will leave party members feeling bitter and disillusioned, and with good reason. These people showed themselves to be wrong, unprincipled and unelectable. Why the fuck do we have to choose one of them to be leader, rather than someone who was actually right on key issues, isn't tainted by the last administration, and who opposed all the bad and stupid policies of the last administration?

The parliamentary party needs to stop trying to fix the election in favour of one of the failures from the last administration, and allow the membership to choose.
1 - Nominations tracker on the Labour Party website. The figures for numbers of nominations received as as of 7th of June, 2010. (http://www2.labour.org.uk/leadership-2010)

Tory madness

David Cameron has just made a speech justifying swinging austerity measures to bring public spending under control:
The prime minister made his most gloomy remarks since taking office as he declared that Britain's public finances were in a worse state than expected and were forcing the coalition government to take "momentous decisions" in the "urgent task" of cutting the deficit.

Interest payments on the debt are currently £42bn a year.

Cameron said the looming cuts would affect Britain's entire population as he laid out the importance of taking "the whole country with us" in dealing with the debt crisis.

In a speech at the Open University in Milton Keynes, he said the figure of around £70bn was drawn from calculations by the last government.

"Let me explain what it means," Cameron said this morning. "Today we spend more on debt interest than we do on running schools in England. But £70bn means spending more on debt interest than we currently do on running schools in England plus climate change plus transport. Interest payments of £70bn mean that for every single pound you pay in tax, 10 pence would be spent on interest."

Cameron stressed that the deficit would not be cut "in a way that hurts those that we most need to help". (1)
Let's forget the glib lie that cuts wouldn't hurt the most needy and vulnerable. It isn't even worth wasting time addressing such an obvious untruth.

Cameron refers to "calculations by the last government," but as far as I can see these figures haven't been published, even though he is using them to justify a massive program of cuts. As British people are the ones who are going to have to endure these cuts, it is only fair that they are shown why they are so necessary. If the government won't publish them, it suggests strongly that it is scaremongering.

Second, even an economic numptie such as I can grasp that spending needs to be maintained until the economy is robust enough to sustain cuts. this basic truth seems to have been forgotten by the Tories in their desperate need to placate the market. Paul Krugman has just published some thoughts on this theme:
... cutting stimulus would weaken the economy, it would reduce revenues — that is, a substantial part of the debt growth the IMF attributes to stimulus would have happened even without stimulus, through lower revenue. Second, for the US at least the core reason for long-run budget concern is rising health care costs — in fact, health cost control is the sine qua non of long-run solvency — which has nothing whatever to do with how much we spend on job creation now.

So how much we spend on supporting the economy in 2010 and 2011 is almost irrelevant to the fundamental budget picture. Why, then, are Very Serious People demanding immediate fiscal austerity?

The answer is, to reassure the markets — because the markets supposedly won’t believe in the willingness of governments to engage in long-run fiscal reform unless they inflict pointless pain right now. To repeat: the whole argument rests on the presumption that markets will turn on us unless we demonstrate a willingness to suffer, even though that suffering serves no purpose.

And the basis for this belief that this is what markets demand is … well, actually there’s no sign that markets are demanding any such thing. There’s Greece — but the Greek situation is very different from that of the US or the UK. And at the moment everyone except the overvalued euro-periphery nations is able to borrow at very low interest rates.

So wise policy, as defined by the G20 and like-minded others, consists of destroying economic recovery in order to satisfy hypothetical irrational demands from the markets — demands that economies suffer pointless pain to show their determination, demands that markets aren’t actually making, but which serious people, in their wisdom, believe that the markets will make one of these days. (2)
And, unlike me, Paul Krugman knows a bit about this whole economics thing.

David Cameron bumbled his way to power by seeming nice and non-ideological, but in less than a month he's using the ongoing problems of the economy as an excuse to hack bloody great chunks out of public spending - the old Thatcherite obsession.

I always thought the neo-Thatcherites would show themselves in time, I just didn't expect it to be this soon, or this cynically, or in such a dangerous way.
1 - "UK debt interest bill will rise to £70bn without action, says David Cameron," by Hélène Mulholland, Nicholas Watt and Terry Macalister. Published in The Guardian, 7th of June, 2010. (http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/jun/07/cuts-change-british-way-of-life-david-cameron)
2 - "Madmen In Authority," by Paul Krugman. Posted on the Conscience of a Liberal, 7th of June, 2010. (http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/07/madmen-in-authority/)

British Labour appealing to xenophobia

I don't know why, but it is a British tradition for a defeated political party to reinvent itself by appealing to xenophobia.

The Tories did this after 1997, choosing first Hague, then Duncan Smith, and then Michael Howard as leaders. Each one was more shrilly Euro-sceptic than the last, and each one more suspicious of immigrants. Howard, in 2005, went so far as to propose withdrawing from the UN convention on Refugees, legislating for the immediate removal of refugees who had destroyed documents and only accepting refugees pre-screened at UN camps outside Britain (1).

Now Ed Balls, candidate for the Labour Party leadership, is looking to grub up support by making the appeal:
As Labour seeks to rebuild trust with the British people, it is important we are honest about what we got wrong. In retrospect, Britain should not have rejected transitional controls on migration from the first wave of new EU member states in 2004, which we were legally entitled to impose. As the GMB's Paul Kenny and others have pointed out, the failure of our government to get agreement to implement the agency workers directive made matters worse.

So what is to be done? First, Britain needs to do more to boost skills, apprenticeships, innovation and jobs in every region. The next Labour leader must fight tooth and nail against Tory cuts in this area. Second, while net migration has eased because of the recession and will ease further when Germany and France remove restrictions next year, the temporary restrictions on migration from Romania and Bulgaria should be maintained – for longer than currently planned.

Third, I support the political and economic case for EU enlargement to Turkey. But wise voices in Britain's existing Turkish communities accept that Turkey's accession can only be made to work with continuing restrictions on the ability of unskilled Turkish labour to move across the EU, certainly for an extended transition period. Fourth, Europe's leaders need to revisit the Free Movement Directive, not to undermine the union, but to make it economically and politically sustainable. That means re-examining the relationship between domestic laws and European rules which allow unaccompanied migrants to send child benefit and tax credits back to families at home.

And it means debating what labour protections and restrictions on unskilled labour mobility are needed in an enlarging Europe, for the benefit of all European peoples. (2)
Balls thinks there is something to be gained by Labour becoming xenophobic in lieu of any other ideas that might appeal to voters. The Tories did the same when they were in opposition.

It's pretty sad when a party loses power and the immediate response is appeal to perceived latent xenophobia in the voters. In this case, the sub-text is, "Vote for me, I was an arrogant authoritarian bastard, but now I'm a nationalistic arrogant authoritarian bastard."

But British voters have traditionally rejected this sort of shit. Hague, Duncan Smith and Howard all went down to defeat, even as the New Labour project fell apart and the popularity of 1997 evaporated post-Iraq. 2005 would have shown if immigrant bashing would be show the way back to power, but it just condemned the Tories to another five years in opposition. It wasn't until they selected David Cameron, who's views on immigration, like his views on most things, are to shrug, smile weakly, and say, "Well, um, what do you think? That's our policy."

It's worth noting that 2005 also marked the electoral high point of the staunchly pro-immigration, anti-authoritarian Lib-Dems. Just looking at it from a purely pragmatic point of view, I don't think there is much to be gained from appealing to (perceived) blue-collar racism. It didn't work for the Tories, it didn't seem to hurt the Lib Dems, and the BNP have failed miserably to take advantage of it

Putting aside the fact that most of the immigrants were filling vacancies that the British work force could not or would not fill, rather than simply displacing British workers, and the influx of European labour probably helped many communities survive by bringing in new money and new businesses, and boosting local services, there have been tensions over immigration which have to be addressed. Jon Cruddas, back in 2005, acknowledged the issue of immigration, but took the saner, non-xenophobic approach:
Jon Cruddas, a former Downing Street adviser and MP for Dagenham, where the BNP made its biggest breakthrough in last month's council elections, said: 'In one sense I agree with the need to raise these issues.

'They are off the radar politically at the moment. There are huge issues about the movement of people into and within our urban cities.

'The solutions don't lie with the BNP, of course. But they demand a policy response from the Government so as to help the poorer communities that take the strain navigate through it.' (3)
The difference being not on trying to close off the labour, but helping communities adapt to the changing world around them - neither the opportunistic nationalism of Balls, nor the laissez fair quasi Thatcherism of Blair and Brown. Actually listening to people, instead of telling them what they think.

Of course, the real problem is not Polish immigrants, but jobs moving overseas for cheaper labour in the far east. But as long as British people buy cheap goods from the orient, there's no reason for manufacturers to behave differently. But that's another story ...
1 - "Howard unveils Tory asylum plans," unattributed BC article. Published 24th of January, 2005. (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/4200761.stm)
2 - We were wrong to allow so many eastern Europeans into Britain," by Ed Balls. Published in The Observer, 6th of June, 2010. (http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jun/06/ed-balls-europe-immigration-labour)
3 - "Ignore mass immigration at your peril, Labour MP warns Blair," by James Chapman. Published in the Daily Mail, 28th of June, 2006. (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-393029/Ignore-mass-immigration-peril-Labour-MP-warns-Blair.html#ixzz0q47ByUkB)

Tuesday, 1 June 2010

Worst press conference ever?

It is hard to imagine just how you would go about justifying piracy on the high seas, but I don't think portraying hard-as-nails Israeli commandos as victims would cut much ice with anyone. Never-the-less, that's what the Israeli government have decided to do, to explain why their soldiers have just shot dead several people on the Gaza Aid Convoy:
According to a spokeswoman for Israel Defence Forces (IDF), Avital Leibovich, officers aboard its warships gave the activists several warnings before commandos were winched from helicopters on to the deck of the Mavi Marmara.

"We found ourselves in the middle of a lynching," she told reporters in the Israeli port of Ashdod. Around 10 activists attacked commandos, she said, relieving them of their pistols.

"We didn't look for confrontation but it was a massive attack," she said. "What happened was a last resort." (1)

It is surely the most unconvincing bit of PR since the heyday of Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf in Baghdad.

Just to re-cap - the Israeli navy sets out to intercept the ships. Though they aren't looking for confrontation, they deploy armed commandos from helicopters to board them against the will of their crew in an attempt to seize control of them, nothing confrontational about that.

And these commandos are presented as the equivalent of the hapless victims of a lynch mob - putting those on the convoy in the position of murderous, racist vigilantes?

Sorry, but really, do fuck off.
1 - "Israel accused of state terrorism after assault on flotilla carrying Gaza aid," by Harriet Sherwood. Published in The Guardian, 1st of June, 2010. (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/may/31/israel-accused-state-terrorism-assault-flotilla-gaza)

Tom Waits for no man