Saturday, 18 January 2014

British Polling Bonanza

I love british politics, because even between their gargantuan elections (where processing results takes a whole day, not the couple of hours required for a count in New Zealand) they have heaps of polls.

It's been something of a Super Friday for Sad People Who Follow Opinion Polls (i.e. me) with FOUR at once.

Populus:

CON 33%
LAB 40%
LDEM 13%
UKIP 9%

Ipsos MORI’:

CON 30%(-3)
LAB 39%(+2)
LDEM 13%(+4)
UKIP 11%(+1)

YouGov:

CON 32%
LAB 39%
LDEM 10%
UKIP 12%

Survation:

CON 30%(-1%)
LAB 34%(-1%)
LDEM 12%(+1%)
UKIP 18%(+2)

The degree of consistency is startling: only Survation stands out, with a lower Labour lead and a rather ludicrously high level of support for the UKIP.  the others give Labour a lead between 7 and 9 points, rather weakening the suggestion that Labour's lead is evaporating in the face of good economic news.

MORI also asked some questions about possible coalitions in a future parliament, and the results are interesting:
-70% of Tory voters would support another coalition with the Lib Dems, only 40% would support a coalition with UKIP. 
-62% of Labour supporters would support a coalition with the Lib Dems, 63% would support a coalition with the Greens. 
-65% of Lib Dems would support another coalition with the Tories, 53% would support a coalition with Labour. 
The first suggests Conservative voters are probably less hostile to the Lib Dems than the Conservative Party in parliament is; and perhaps implies the typical Tory voter is more left wing and level headed than the frothing imbeciles he or she has to vote for.  Conservative voters probably quite like the way the coalition is working, and appreciate the way the Lib Dems have moderated the lunatic right wing of the Conservative party in parliament.  It suggests people - even Tories - are slightly less anti-Europe than they are portrayed.

The results for Labour suggest that the party should reconsider its stance of proportional representation.  Its supporters would be as comfortable to see the party working with the Greens as with the Lib Dems; but it is an irrelevant question with only one Green in parliament.  Embracing electoral reform would give them a coalition alternative, and would also strengthen their negotiating position with the Lib Dems.

The Lib Dem result suggests the Lib Dem voter is more right wing than he or she is typecast as, and undermines the myth that the Lib Dems are just an extension of the Labour Party.  They might have been once, but now they seem to be more inclined towards supporting the Conservatives.  This might be because they see the current coalition as successful, and / or because the left leaning Lib Dems stopped being Lib Dems when the coalition formed.

Hat Tip: Anthony Wells at UK Polling Report for compiling all this lovely data.

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