Saturday, 26 November 2011

2011 Election

Don't know if I'll do the full thing like I did last time, but I'll record whatever vague thoughts I may have.

I voted for the Mana Party, oddly. In the voting booth, I found I still hadn't forgiven Labour for that Free Trade Deal with China. Since Phil Goff had categorically ruled out a deal with Mana it made it a logical place to cast a leftwing, anti-Labour vote. I could have gone with the Greens, but I figured they would simply prop up Labour (or, Heaven forbid, National!). And I figured the Greens were comfortable enough, whereas Mana needed more of a boost.

Prediction @ 7pm - Labour in the low 30s, National in the high 40s. Greens 12%. NZ First 4.8%. No ACT in parliament tommorrow. that's what I think will happen and I think it is likely to be the best result the left can hope for. Probably, stopping the asset sales will be the best outcome.

CLARIFICATION - when I say low thirties, I mean VERY LOW. And when I say high forties, I mean VERY HIGH. I'm not envisaging a patchwork coalition based around Labour and the Greens. 31% or 32% versus 47% or 48%.

7.20 Wonder if this will be a 2005 election, where Labour started 10% behind and dragged it back, point by painful point, or if it will be a 2008 election, where there was very little movement from the initial shares?

Haven't said anything about the voting system referendum, because I've not been able to seriously countenance the idea of MMP being rejected ...

Best list ever

Forget the party lists.

Rolling Stone has released its list of the top 100 guitarists of all time.

Johnny Ramone is at number 16. That in itself makes it a great list. But, even better ...
24 The Edge of U2
Johnny beats The Edge.

Best list ever. Without a doubt.

Sunday, 20 November 2011

Coalition scorecard: Tory housing plans

+1 ... Plans to encourage people to build new homes, basically acknowledging that Labour's plan to build our way out of recession was right all along.
OVERALL: -1/10. This hasn't been updated for a long time, basically because the government hasn't been doing anything drastically annoying enough (or, somewhat less lightly, sensible enough) to merit changes. Encouraging building of new homes seems a sensible policy, however.

Thursday, 17 November 2011

Only a matter of time?

This morning, I turned on the radio and went back to sleep, and as a result I had a confused series of dreams inspired by whatever Geoff and Simon happen to be talking about. One of them was that John Key had been caught impersonating as police officer, wearing a fake moustache to disguise his identity, in an effort to retreive the recording of his Evil Plans discussed with John Banks. I am not making this up. Or rather, I am, because I'm fairly sure I dreamed it and it hasn't been repeated in subsequent bulletins. But I really did dream it.

Thing is, John Key has become so unstuck over this affiar that I wouldn't have been surprised to discover it had really happedned. In fact, it took me a few minutes after lugging myself out of bed, to realise that it (probably) wasn't true. But given how poorly Key's reacted to it - getting all imperious, invoking Millie Downer, suicidal paarents, bolting out of press conferences and telling the people of New Zealand what they are interested in - I wouldn't be surprised ...

Then there was Don Brash's weird interview with Simon Mercep slightly later on, once I was fully awake. I'm no fan of Brash, but I felt a smiggen of pity for him, as he tried to nervously chuckle his way past every question about his career prospects as ACT leader.

I doubt this will have enough of an impact to lose National the election. But it may cost them their majority. And if the Labour-Green bloc can nudge up to that 45% threshold, who knows what may happen.

A week ago, I'd have laughed (bitterly) at the the use of the words "Goff" and "Prime Minister" in the same sentence. Now I'm not so sure it won't happen. Which must be a worry for Labour, as they've made all those promises in anticipation of not having to keep any of them ...

Wednesday, 9 November 2011

Why is it ... ?

John Key can see, so clearly, the recklessness of continuing to run up debt during a recession, yet is so blind to the recklessness of stalling on climate change?

You'd think he was motivated by something other pure principle, wouldn't you?

Still, no different from Labour's masquerade of principled policy.

Monday, 7 November 2011

Is it just me?

... Or is there something a bit suspicious about labour's sudden interest in putting out Good, Substantive Policy for an election that they're almost certain to lose?

Capital gains tax? Great.
Getting agriculture into the ETS in 2013? Great.
Raising the Super age? Great.
Universal child benefit? Great?

These are all good policies. Sensible policies. Mature polices. Probably, since we don't live in a good, sensible mature society, vote costing, election losing policies. So - since lots of the better, more sensible and mature part of Labour's constituency are bemoaning the fact their party has become a bunch of neo-liberal apologists - what better time to offer them a bunch of sops than at a time when it isn't going to make a blind bit of difference to the result?

Then, in 2014, when everyone's a bit sickened of John Key's peculiarly successful brand of politics - essentially doing nothing but smiling at random Big Events and with Important People - Labour can shed some crocodile tears and say to these good, senseible, mature voters, "Well, we offerred the electors all these good, sensible, mature policies in 2011, and they were rejected. So this time around, we'll offer essentially the same things as National, and hoepfully squeak in with a bit of help from the Greens, who are almost as long suffering and naive as you lot. But at least we're not National, so you should vote for us."

Theresa May: Going, Going ...

So, Theresa May is in a bit of trouble.  Tories are scheming and plotting - which they do on any day that ends in a 'Y' - and rumour...