British Labour take a 9 point poll lead

From Opinium, reported in the Guardian.  This, the Guardian is at pains to point out is the biggest lead the party has enjoyed since 2014 or (as they might have preferred to put it since Before Corbyn.

You have to wonder how Labour might have done in 2017 or even 2019 if the right wing of the party had not spend four years trying to assail the hapless and affable Mr Corbyn, and instead directed their energy towards getting a Labour government elected.

Also described by the Guardian, the Lib Dems (remember them?) are threatening a Ribble Valley style upset in the absurdly conservative seat of North Shropshire.

I am horrified to realise I am old enough to remember Eastbourne and Ribble Valley - two glorious by election victories of thirty years ago, where the Lib Dems overturned massive Tory majorities in traditional Blue seats.  The Conservatives were at the wrong end of a decade in power, seen as being in office but barely in power, lurching from crisis to crisis and facing a Labour Party that had replaced its worryingly leftwing leader with a younger, more media friendly person - in this case Neil 'father of Stephen' Kinnock.

You'll remember Stephen Kinnock as the chap who was so delighted at Labour's gutsy performance in 2017 he almost looked unhappy.

Unrestrained Joy on the faces of Stephen Kinnock and his coterie as they absorb the 2017 election result.

With self control like that, he should play poker.  No indication of the internal celebration undoubtedly going on under that worryingly smooth pate.

Of course, one should be cautious.  Following the humiliations of Eastbourne and Ribble Valley, the Conservatives won the subsequent election in 1992 and remained in power for another six years.  Neil Kinnock went off to enjoy a long career of doing obscure, but probably well remunerated, jobs in Europe, so he can probably be blamed for Brexit as well as losing the 92 election.  Starmer has a lot of work to do to convince people - on the left as well as the right - that he is worth voting for.

There is a chance of a Labour government in 2024.  It's a long road.  But the process needs to start now.  Corbyn's tenure was derailed by factionalism.  Starmer has shown himself very unwilling to heal rifts.  That will mean labour going into a future election still licking the self-inflicted wounds of 2019 and risk returning another five years of Conservative misrule.

He needs to restore the whip to Corbyn and start acknowledging the left are a valid and legitimate part of the party.  He needs to remember the galvanising effect of the 2017 manifesto, with its clarion calls for social democracy and progressive policies.  He needs to reject the bland managerialism and unconvincing attempts to portray 'quiet competence' that won't 'spook the markets.'  That's not worth voting for.  Whatever it is that made Starmer want to be a Labour Party member and fight to become Labour leader, he needs to find it again.

Thank you very much for your kind contagion, thank you very much ...

Good to see the government - after a stunningly successful Round One with COVID - has decided to  simply offer us all up to the virus so Ardern can keep her hare-brained promise to open up the country for Christmas.

First we were going to eradicate Delta, just like we did last time Covid showed its face here.  That was the best policy and we were probably only a couple of weeks from success.  But the government's constant spineless shifting of lines and the stupid arrogant selfishness of some made it harder and kept pushing out the eradication horizon.  It was and is and always will be outlandish to hear people complaining about how lockdowns are damaging the economy or people's mental health or social relationships; and then advocating the sort of stupid ideas that make things even worse.  Tired of sitting about at home?  Try having COVID and see how you like that.  Think your business is suffering?  See how it goes when you are continually losing staff and customers and not able to run a supply chain as COVID devastates every aspect of the economy.

The solution was, of course, getting people vaccinated and so it seemed sensible to set a target; when the government announced we were going to open up when we got 90% of the population double vaxxed,  I could live with that.  It would have meant punishing ongoing economic and health problems, a steady stream of deaths and sicknesses.  But a highly vaccinated population would have meant only long term misery, not catastrophe.

Now we're looking at the government shrugging its shoulders and giving up, apparently because of a slight shift in the polls and because they are afflicted by the strange delusion that anyone listens to Judith Collins.  Not even Judith Collins listens to Judith Collins.  But for some reason the government do and decide to adopt what ever random spluttering she produced on Morning Report three weeks ago.

Given the critical lack of spine in the government, they'll probably relent on the ban on unvaccinated workers in health and education, and let them all back in, bringing their virus spreading super-potential with them.  Nice.

It isn't how you run a country.  It isn't how you look after people.

Final BMG poll - nothing to see here

BMG research have unleashed their final poll of the 2019 campaign:

Westminster voting intention: 

CON: 41% (-)
LAB: 32% (-)
LDEM: 14% (-)
GRN: 4% (-)
BREX: 3% (-1)

via @BMGResearch , 06 - 11 Dec Chgs. w/ 06 Dec 

That's a bit of a "Dunno why we bothered" sort of poll.

"Phillip, I'm afraid I've been a bit of an ass and forgot to do any polling for the eve of election poll. I was so high on coke it completely slipped my mind!"

"Don't worry Niles. There's an old industry trick for this. Tell Monica to stick up the same figures from last time and change a minor party's result by a tiny amount. We'll get away with it. People only pay attention to polls that show something interesting happening."

Regardless of how they arrived at their conclusions, I think they are wrong.  Not enough younger voters, not expecting enough younger voters to turn out, failure to pick up on impact of the last few days to filtering through - some of the data was collected before Johnson's recent blunders.

Shy Labour Voters?

In previous elections pollsters have bemoaned the 'shy Tory' - the respondent who is so fearful of being judged as a cruel and heartless bastard by an anonymous pollster, or their spouses, workmates and friends, that they lie about their intention of voting Conservative, skewing the poll figures in Labour's favour.  But in the privacy of the polling booth, these scruples vanish and with Satanic glee, legions of voters up and down the country put a monstrous X beside the name of the Conservative candidate, thus winning the election for that party.

Of so the pollsters would have it.  I've never really bought into the idea, myself.  But I am wondering if - given the stubborn refusal of the polls to do what I think they should be doing and narrow, damnit, narrow - if we are seeing the opposite phenomenon.  Or opposite phenomena, as rough beast shambles into view in two forms.

On the one hand, the brazen Brexiteer.  The years since the referendum have embolden and validated some Conservative voters.  People who would once have kept their admiration for Nigel Farage and hankering for blue passports very quiet because it was not considered smart or respectable no longer care a cuss.  They are out and proud, strutting down the high street in their Union Jack suits, brandishing their copies of the Daily Mail and proclaiming anyone different a traitor or - worse - an elitist.

The only shy Tories these days are the One Nation Conservatives, who are feeling a bit excluded from their own parties and toying with the idea of casting a vote for nice Jo Swinson.

On the otherhand, I think the mantle of shyness has been passed to potential Labour voters. Given potential they are being told they are voting for an anti-Semitic, Marxist, sandwich stealing, terrorist loving, Cenotaph dancing, incorrect bowing, national anthem not singing security risk ex-spy vegetarian who wants to nationalise sausages and sell all our nukes to Russia (only this last is not something that has actually been alleged about Corbyn and / or Labour) I would not be surprised if they just muttered "I haven't made up my mind yet" when asked.

Is this a thing or just another straw that I am clutching at?  We'll know soon enough ...

You Gov MRP Poll Out

So, You Gov's MRP poll - the weird one that tries to reflect what will happen at a constituency level and which pretty much nailed the hung parliament in 2017 - is not looking too good for Labour:

UK #GE2019 MRP seat projection:

CON: 339 (-20)
LAB: 231 (+20)
SNP: 41 (-2)
LDEM: 15 (+2)
PC: 4 (-)
GRN: 1 (-)
BREX: 0 (-)

via @YouGov,
Chgs. w/ 26 Nov

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) 10 December 2019

None-the-less I am feeling pretty confident the actual gap will be less than polls are showing.

Maybe it is my Scottish second sight, or my equally Scottish refusal to acknowledge the cause is lost, or something.

I think:

a) Labour clearly have the momentum (intentional, et cetera and will still make some progress in the final 24 hours;

b) the polls have always tended to overestimate the Tory support;

c) the polls are underestimating youth vote and turnout;

d) the last couple of days will have cost the Conservatives a lot of potential votes;

e) especially undecideds, who will have looked at Johnson's dithering over JustLookAtTheBloodyPhotoOiGiveMeMyPhoneBackYouThievingDickGate and decided they certainly can't be voting for that.

f) Labour will have a terrific Get Out the Vote campaign.

On the down side, the Tories have the mirage of getting Brexit done, the splitting of the anti-Conservative vote and the slight advantage that a third of the voting population have been conditioned to hate.

And before you say anything about "If only they'd switched leader ..." that goes for every Labour leader. Even Tony Blair got it a bit in 1997 - though perhaps they went easy on him, and it was only 25% of the electorate that got the 1984 style 'Two Minutes Hate' style conditioning.

My earlier prediction of Labour finishing as the largest party feels wildly optimistic, but I think I said that at the time, and I'm going to stick with it because, you know, Scottish, refusal to acknowledge and all that.

Boris Johnson Goes Down

It hasn't been a good week for the Conservatives, pollwise.  All major recent polls are showing their lead shrinking.

Comparing each pollster's current (between 29/11 and 22/11) and previous most recent poll.

• Panel Base - Conservative lead down 2 points.
• Com Res - Conservative lead down 3 points.
• You Gov - Conservative lead down 1 point.
• Kantar - Conservative lead down 8 points.
• ICM - Conservative lead down 3 points.
• Survation - Conservative lead down 3 points.
• Deltapoll - Conservative lead down 2 points.

All from here.

Like I've said many times, I don't trust pollsters to get vote shares right; some of these polls are still showing outlandishly high Conservative leads. But I do expect them to be able to pick up indications movement. Which is what we're seeing.

I still think there is likely more movement than they are detecting, and things are much closer than they are showing.

So here's a song for Boris Johnson, which captures his arrogant sense of entitlement ("I tell all the girls they can kiss my heinie"), his sexual incontinence and his current polling:

Frank Zappa - predicting everything about Boris Johnson before anyone else knew Boris Johnson needed to be predicted.

Damn the Polls

So, there have been a bunch of bad polls out for Labour, and even the Leftie's friend, Survation, have recently given the Conservatives a rip-snorting 11% lead.  You Gov's much vaunted MRP poll - which pretty much nailed the result in 2015 - is currently predicting a comfortable majority for the Conservatives.

People have such touching faith in the opinion polls. I think the polls are wildly incorrect, on a 2017+ scale.

They may be right, they may be wrong.  Usually, they are wrong, often significantly so.  Remember, most pollsters had the conservatives winning a comfortable majority in 2017 ... and said there would be a hung parliament in 2015 ... and the Tories would win decisively in 2010.  Not forgetting the Brexit referendum and the Soccish independence referendum (which pollsters were predicting would be close).

In 2017 I had trust in Survation; this year I've lost faith in them. It's a bit like atheism - they say Christian's don't believe in 99.99% of all gods that have historically been worshipped, atheists feel the same, but add one more to the list. My hunch / hope is that Survation have messed up the BXP redistribution. Since the BXP pulled out of contesting Conservative seats, Survation have started showing large Conservative leads.

The bottom line is  - I'm finding it hard to believe that Boris Johnson is as popular as Blair in his heyday. 

I can not comprehend widescale enthusiasm for a blustering fool, liar, cheat and blowhard who gets booed wherever he goes. (But that's enough about me ...)

Nor can I imagine Labour's exciting and ambitious manifesto not catching on.

So inspite of the polls I'm feeling pretty cocky at the moment. At the start of the election I predicted Labour would finish as largest party with about 290 seats. Obviously, the opinion polls are saying that isn't going to happen, but we know they are bollocks. I may have been a bit optimistic, but we'll see. I think another stalemate - perhaps even staler than the last one - is a distinct possibility. And Labour finishing ahead is not out of the question.

Also bear in mind this wisdom from Tom Clark, considering the You Gov MRP poll:

Lesson 1 of 2015 is that it’s no use having more data if you’re data is biased. Back then, inspired by the cult of Nate Silver & his state-by-state stuff, we had loads of constituency polls and seat-by-seat projections that turned out to be tosh

https://twitter.com/prospect_clark/status/1199828481095479296

Good thread, by the way.

I think Labour will rally, and the Conservatives will sink, as people realise how insipid their manifesto is and Johnson continues to come across as an over-promoted dolt. It will be like a crapper version of 2019, with neither side managing to whip up the enthusiasm of two years ago.

I think the final result will be:

37% Con
35% Lab
13% Lib Dem
5% BXP
4% SNP
2.5% GRN
2% Irish
0.5% PC
1% Others

And with numbers like that (depending on how they translate into seats) it is hard to see how Johnson can get into Downing Street.

But I am worried about people feeling demoralised and despairing, which may make the polls self-fulfilling

Scary Opinium Poll

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (+3)
LAB: 28% (-1)
LDEM: 14% (-1)
BREX: 6% (-)

via @OpiniumResearch, surveyed this week
Chgs. w/ 08 Nov

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) 16 November 2019

This, of course, doesn't look good.  Labour have been chucking big, headline grabbing policies left, right and centre ... Well, maybe not right.  Left, left and centre left, perhaps.

But then again, Opinium have always tended to show big Tory leads.  The 16% there isn't too outlandish for them.  Every single one of their last ten polls has given the Tories a double digit lead.  And 5 out of that 10 have given it as 15% or 16%.

Another interesting (for me) feature of Opinium's polling is that they seem to have recently started including the nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales - and this seems to have coincided with the ballooning of the Conservative lead.

What could this mean?

1 - The Tories became wildly popular at that time and it is just a coincidence.

2 - Everyone in Scotland who supported SNP but didn't have the option said they'd vote Labour instead, and that was a lot of people; one they got the option of saying they'd vote SNP instead they did so, and Labour's vote collapsed.

3 - Opinium made some big methodological changes at the time and now their polling is completely bonkers.

Looking back at Opinium's polling pedigree, I find more reasons to be sceptical.  In 2017, their polls in the month leading up to the election gave leads of 15%, 13%, 10%, 6% and 7% - so they did detect a narrowing of the Conservative lead, but seem to have consistently underestimated how tight the race was.

So if Opinium say the lead is 16% it is probably 8%.

War of the worms

I'm going to make a Reckless Prediction™ that the Tories have 'topped out' in the 'poll of polls' / Britain Elects multipoll tracker at about 38%, and in the next week we will start to see Labour creep up on them.

In fact, we might just be seeing the start of this trend now:

The Conservative worm appears to be taking a rest, while Labour's is - perhaps - starting to wriggle energetically upwards.

There seems to be a ceiling on support for the Conservatives - in 2017 it was in the mid 40s and now, critically, it is several points lower (due to disillusionment over Brexit, disenchantment over social problems, the rise of the Farage and the Brexit Party, and Johnson being more of a 'difficult' figure to voters than May was).

Meanwhile, Labour's potential will be starting to think seriously about who they want to vote for and - possibly reluctantly at first - opting for Labour.

Importantly, this will create a new narrative - that the Conservatives are 'stalled' and Labour are starting to ;close the gap' and the 'Corbyn effect' is starting to impact on the campaign. That will mostly be twaddle but the media like to sound like they know what is going on and sound clever (like me).  The result will be that they actually start to create the effect they are trying to discern.

This might sound like grave hypocrisy from someone who frequently scorns polls, but the point is not the individual numbers or even where the aggregate lies, but the trend. Pollsters - unless they are completely useless - will tend to pick up shifts of opinion - and how the polls actually can influence the public's perception of what is going on.

Worth repeating forever

There have been three polls since the election was announced, and I will shamelessly steal YouGov / UK Polling Report's Anthony Wells' summary of them:

Survation – CON 34%, LAB 26%, LDEM 19%, BREX 12%, GRN 1%
Ipsos MORI – CON 41%, LAB 24%, LDEM 20%, BREX 7%, GRN 3%
YouGov – CON 36%, LAB 21%, LDEM 18%, BREX 13%, GRN 6%

I'll also shamelessly steal from his commentary on these polls:

It’s worth noting that that Tory lead is largely down to a split opposition. Even in the MORI poll the Conservatives have lost support since the election (in the YouGov and Survation polls they’ve lost a lot of support). This is not a popular government – in the MORI poll, their satisfaction rating is minus 55 – it’s just that the main opposition have lost even more support. The healthy Conservative lead is down to the fact that the Conservatives are retaining the bulk of the Leave vote, while the remain vote is split between Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the SNP, Plaid and so on. 

For as long as this is the case, the Conservatives should do well. If it should change they’ll struggle. If the Brexit party manage to get back into the race and take support from the Tories it would eat into their lead. The other risk for the Tories is if the Remain vote swings more decisively behind either Labour or the Liberal Democrats (or that there are signs of more effective tactical voting, winning seats off the Conservatives despite a split vote). Essentially Boris Johnson needs to keep the Leave vote united and the Remain vote divided.

The 'Vote stupid, get Tories' message can never be hammered home enough.

That said, I am feeling pessimistic today.  My hunch is that we will wait ... and wait ... and wait for the 'Corbyn surge' that never quite materialises.

I hope I am wrong.  I hope it is just early morning glumness following a late night (there was a rugby match) and the prospect of a Sunday afternoon spent doing frustratingly dull work.  I hope all the Conservative voters decide to stay at home because they are too sickened of all this nonsense to turn out to vote.  I hope Momentum organise furiously, target their resources well and get the vote out where it matters.

n.b. The bit that is worth 'repeating forever' is the bit about the dangers of splitting the vote, not the bit about me feeling a bit doubtful.

Guardian: Poll shows DISASTER for Corbyn and the End of Times

The Guardian - ever eager to forewarn of doom and disaster on the left - are leading with a new poll from Opinium, which puts the Conservatives 15% clear of Labour.

Con 38% +2
Lab 23% -1
Lib Dem 15% -5
Brexit 12% +1
Green 4% +2

This isn't good news, and it would be very bad news if it wasn't Opinium; they consistently give the Conservatives large leads; the largest, indeed.  Looking at recent polling (i.e. September to present moment), here's how the different companies compare:

Large Tory leads (6% or over in majority of included polls):

• You Gov (leads range from 7% to 14%, 7 polls included)
• Opinium (Leads range from 10% to 15%, 5 polls)
• Kantar (Leads of 14%, 1 poll)
• Ipsos Mori (Lead of 9%, 1 poll)

Small Tory Leads (5% or less in majority of included polls):

• Panelbase (Lead of 3%, 1 poll)
• ComRes (Leads range from TIE to 4%, 5 polls)
• Survation (Leads range from 3% to 5%, 2 polls)
• Deltapoll (Lead of 3%, 1 poll; BUT a poll released 31/8 gave a Conservative lead of 11%!; make of that what you will.)

(BMG are also included in Britain Elects' table but don't seem to have released a September poll.)

So, from that, what can we conclude?  Nothing.  The polls are all over the place but at least individual pollsters seem to be finding fairly consistent results.  Someone is definitely wrong, and it is just about possible everyone is.

Bugger

Still, the Greens look safe. That's SOMETHING.

And if NZ First don't get back in (assuming Winston loses Northland and they slip 0.1% more ... Well, I'll try very hard to lament the undemocratic wasted vote while punching the air and and dancing like a jalopy.

IF (big if) the poll is realised on Saturday and we end up with English & Co back in charge again, then Labour have to think pretty hard about why it happened. Putting it down to the greed / stupidity of the electorate isn’t going to help.

Labour have to think why (if) they opted for National. After all, last week the voters were smart and engaged because the Colmar Brunton poll showed them supporting Labour.

Apolling Propaganda

So, there have been a couple of polls, apparently.

One - by Reid research - was pleasing for National.  Another - by Colmar Brunton - pleasured Labour.

Over on The Standard, the former was met with howls of despair and derision. Reid Research, apparently, were fully paid up members of the Illuminati-Space Lizard conspiracy. Stephen Joyce personally wrote in the numbers. Or something like that.

The second poll was give a much warmer reception. Indeed, I think some commentators on The Standard would have married the poll, so entranced were they by its appeal. Someone, writing under the anonymous NOTICES AND FEATURES nom-de-plume, rushed out a marriage proposal glowing endorsement. It proved, apparently, that, "The 3 News poll was a rogue."

Whoa, whoa, whoa!  It does no such thing!

The claim that a Colmar Brunto shows a Reid Research poll to have been completely inaccurate is not correct and whoever is writing under the NOTICES AND FEATURES byline should be ashamed of themselves. I suspect they know they are doing a Bad Thing but decided to put it out there anyway for purposes of propaganda.

Comparing the findings of a Colmar Brunton poll and a Reid Research poll does not show one is accurate and one inaccurate. Even comparing several CB polls to the RR poll does not invalidate it. It merely shows that the two companies have different sampling methods and / or process the data differently and obtain different results.

The only things that would show RR’s poll to be a rogue would be further RR polls that show significantly different results; or the election result itself.

You’ll recall that in Britain, Survation was mocked when its polls showed Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party closing in on May’s Conservatives. Other companies showed the Conservatives well ahead. It turned out that Survation was correct and they called the result more accurately than the other companies, by considerable margins. You do not know which polling company has the right formula (or the least wrong, more like) until the real votes are counted. Until then, you can only regard the forecasts with bemused curiosity or phlegmatic disdain.

Do not dismiss the latest RR poll until it is invalidated by further RR polls. The alternative is psephological madness.

UK Polling

Another poll showing the Tory lead has evaporated:

CON 37
LAB 35
LDEM 7
UKIP 9

(And there was another one as well, showing pretty much the same thing)

So either the worthy yeomen of Britannia are falling in behind Corbyn and his Red Guards; or the Tories are so awful that people are willig to vote for anything; or we are entering that magical period where the polls diverge from reality.

Interestingly, in the perceptions of leaders, Corbyn now leads Cameron, though his numbers aren't exactly great:

Cameron -25
Corbyn -11
Farage -2
Farron -12

This is interesting as it was these metric, rather than the actual poll numbers, that held up in 2015. The Conservatives were always ahead of Labour in the economic competence ratings, and Cameron always beat Milliband as preferred leader. But things are getting messy.

Oddly, I think this might make Corbyn more vulnerable in some ways. Once it looks like Labour might be in with a shout, people will start to think about how much they want to be Prime Minister.  Suddenly Corbyn will find plenty of Cassius's seeking to plant knives in his back.  Even more so than he's had to put up with already, I mean.

I suspect his enemies will view this as a starting pistol for more scheming and plotting.  They will look for an opportunity - the Scottish elections, where Labour might be pushed back into third place BEHIND the TORIES might afford it.  Corbyn has smartly not involved himself in the problems of Scottish Labour, but it is a strategic problem the party is going to have to face up to.

(Though the first question any aspiring replacement needs to have yelled at them, loudly, is "What are you going to do about Scotland, you tube?")

I actually do wonder if the recent resurgence in Labour - oh, my giddy aunt, 35%! - might actually be because of, and not in spite of, Corbyn.  Having weathered a miserable first six months, and with an operation that is slightly less amateur than it was before, perhaps he is starting to register with the electorate.

Which might mean if he is pushed out in favour of a blandly electable Blairite, we might see those promising numbers slump once again.  And we'll certainly see a Hell of a civil war beak out.  And the right wing won't be able to so much as whimper, having schemed and plotted and conspired against Corbyn from the start.

As for the other side, obviously the Conservatives have had a dreadful couple of weeks, with the Worst Budget Evah from George Osborne, the Iaian Duncan Smith resignation and the continual, ongoing problem of Europe.  It is likely they will find the next few weeks even more trying.  And if it does drag out, the calls for Cameron to go will get louder.

Whoever thought a leader who delivered an outright majority would collapse rapidly and utterly?  Clearly, ten months is a very long time in politics!

British Polling

The still invaluable Jeremy Wells at UK Polling Report has offered us some You Gov London polling.

It's worth noting London was one of the areas where the pollsters generally got it right (another was Scotland, rather annoyingly).

Polling companies have been making adjustments to methodology polling companies have made following the election debacle; I wonder if this means the London polls are now all wrong.

CON 37%(+2)
LAB 44%(nc)
LDEM 4%(-4)
UKIP 11%(+3)
GRN 2%(-3)

London mayoral voting intentions:

KHAN 45% (Labour)
GOLDSMITH 35% (Conservative)
WHITTLE 6% (Who?)
BERRY 5% (Sadly, not a fruit)
PIDGEON 4% (Sadly, not a bird)
GALLOWAY 2% (Sadly, not a human)

Assuming the polls are at least a wee bit accurte, there is still no sign of the must-trumped 'Corbyn Collapse.'

Polling companies - who can we trust?

Anthony Wells (who I want to gay-marry) at UKPR has compiled this handy guide to which polling compnies are the best and most reliable (on the left of the graph) down to those who are not to be trusted (on the right):

All hail the Happy Warrior!

As the election campaign heats up three polls out today show comfortable Labour leads.  It may be that people are rejecting the negativity emanating from the Conservatives.  It they are trying to run a dirty campaign, it doesn't seem to be working.  It shows a spectacular misjudgement - people don't actually like patrician Tory bullies sneering.

The other thing is that Milliband's gaucheness is actually quite appealing.  Whatever he may be - dorky, awkward, a bit weird, he isn't a sneering patrician Tory bully.  Nor, thankfully, is a a Tony Blair.  No-one could ever decscribe Ed Milliband as being a polished, sauve political operator.  He just wouldn't be very good at that.

And the British, cussed contrary people that they are, may be warming to that.

When his notes for the leaders' debate were found, his reminder that 'I am happy warrior' hit exactly the sort of note that appeals.  Probably, the media thought they would get another cheap laugh at his expense - as if they haven't had enough already - but it doesn't seem to have come off like that.  Damn it all, it made him seem human.  We - the little people - could recognise a little bit of ourselves in those four words.  And in contrast to Cameron's aloofness and the down right nastiness emanating from the Tories, it seems to be the sort of approach that is likely to win people over rather than switch them off.

The conventional wisdom - described by Simon Lusk in the opening pages of Dirty Politic - is that dirty campaigns favour the right because it alienates the floating voters and reduces participation to the hard core tribalists and the self-interested.  Has Milliband - presumably with out intending to - found the long sought antidote?  Just be nice.  And a bit daffy.

(Of course, what will nbow happen is that his handlers will try to get him to do this all the time, smothering the campaign with a sort of synthetic nice daffiness that ill be as false as Tony Blair's charm, John Redwood's sense of humour and Nigel Farage's blokeish schtick.  And then Labour will tank, because if there is one thing less likely to succeed that a campaigning running on nice daffiness it is a campaign running on synthetic nice daffiness.  The worst thing that can happen is that Milliband starts referring to himself as the Happy Warrior.  He needs to do what he has been doing for the last two weeks - talking about ideas, talking about policy, being vaguely too interested in the minutae of politics but obviously having his heart in the right place, and being apparently impervious to the brickbats and abuse directed at him by the appalling right wing press.)

Anyway, UK Polling Report describes three polls out today.  Three polls, all showing Ed is en route to a triumph exceeding the defeat of Nazi Germany, and that Cameron should start running for the hills, as packs of angry right wing voters seek to exact vengeance for their unutterable humiliation:

• TNS - Con 30%(-3), Lab 33%(+1), LDem 8%(nc), UKIP 19%(+3), Grn 4%(-1)
• Panelbase - Con 31%(-2), Lab 37%(+4), LDem 8%(+1), UKIP 16%(-1), Grn  4%(-1)
• Survation - Con 31%(-1), Lab 35%(+2), LDem 9%(nc), UKIP 15%(-3), Grn  4%(+2) 

Three polls make a summer, surely?

 It seems the people like The Happy Warrior.


UPDATE - unconfirmed polls from ComRes andYouGov are a bit less exciting from a Labour point of view, but may well be a cause for relief among Conservative campaign managers:

• COMRES - Con 34 (-2), Lab 33, (+1) LDem 12 (+3), UKIP 12 (=), Grn  4 (-1) 
• YouGov - Con 35 (+1), Lab 34 (-1), LDem 8 (=), UKIP 12 (-1), Grn  4 (-1)

While I'd regard YouGov and ComRes as a bit more reliable than the likes of Panelbase and Survation, I'd raise an eyebrow at the surge in Lib Dem support ComRes report.  That looks a bit anomalous - that's suggesting they've increased support by a quarter in a week when they've done virtually nothing (though that might be WHY they've increased - it's got to look better than  a  week in coalition ...) - and while I regard YouGov as the best pollster, overall, I suspect its methodology may sometimes makes it a little slower to report trends.

(But that might also just b me not liking the fact it isn't showing the movement to Labour I want to see ...)

So I'm hoping that there is a bit of a move towards Labour in the 

New Newark

A poll from Lord Ashcroft suggests the Tories are on slightly safer ground.

CON 42%(-12) LAB 20%(-2) LDEM 6%(-14) UKIP 27%(+23)

Changes since the General Election.

It will be interesting to see Labour's vote up substantially in one and down a wee bit in the other; until the world adopts my form of mathematics, both can not be right.

Of course, if Labour do increase their vote share it proof the people - even the people of Newark - are hearing Ed's message. If Labour don't increase their vote, it is evidence of massive tactical voting and proof the people - even the people of Newark - hate the Coalition like poison.

Foul polling lies from You Gov

Poll the other day suggested Labour only led the Conservatives by a single point.

This is blatant propaganda put about by the forces of reaction. The tinpot fraudsters who commissioned this so-called 'poll' - robably fresh back from the Crimea - are a joke.

Compare the fumbling efforts with a proper company like You Gov, who - just a fortnight ago - were showing a Labour lead of 9 points.

And only sporting instinct, support for the underdog and British fair play stopped them revealing the truth of the matter, which is that the Tories had actually registered a negative level of support and the number expressing support for Ed actually exceeding the number of people polled!

P.S.  I notice a subsequent You Gov poll shows a 2 point lead, which, of course should be described as Might Labour Effortlessly Double Lead Over Hopeless Tories!

British polls

YouGov provides another sterling example of veracity in polling:

CON 32%
LAB 42%
LD 8%
UKIP 12%

Meanwhile, the spineless lickspittles of wicked deviance at YouGov (CON 34%, LAB 37%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%), ComRes (CON 32%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%) and YouGov (CON 35%, LAB 37%, LD 9%, UKIP 13%) have continued their bestial habit of shameless lying to the British public about how beloved and admired Ed's wonderful government-in-waiting is.  When the great Reckoning comes, they will be forced rto account for their crimes against truth and the workers!  They know this, which is the reason they lie and lie with increasing desperation.

As always, thank you to UK Polling Report.