Friday, 25 March 2016

UK Polling

Another poll showing the Tory lead has evaporated:

CON 37
LAB 35
LDEM 7
UKIP 9

(And there was another one as well, showing pretty much the same thing)

So either the worthy yeomen of Britannia are falling in behind Corbyn and his Red Guards; or the Tories are so awful that people are willig to vote for anything; or we are entering that magical period where the polls diverge from reality.

Interestingly, in the perceptions of leaders, Corbyn now leads Cameron, though his numbers aren't exactly great:

Cameron -25
Corbyn -11
Farage -2
Farron -12

This is interesting as it was these metric, rather than the actual poll numbers, that held up in 2015. The Conservatives were always ahead of Labour in the economic competence ratings, and Cameron always beat Milliband as preferred leader. But things are getting messy.

Oddly, I think this might make Corbyn more vulnerable in some ways. Once it looks like Labour might be in with a shout, people will start to think about how much they want to be Prime Minister.  Suddenly Corbyn will find plenty of Cassius's seeking to plant knives in his back.  Even more so than he's had to put up with already, I mean.

I suspect his enemies will view this as a starting pistol for more scheming and plotting.  They will look for an opportunity - the Scottish elections, where Labour might be pushed back into third place BEHIND the TORIES might afford it.  Corbyn has smartly not involved himself in the problems of Scottish Labour, but it is a strategic problem the party is going to have to face up to.

(Though the first question any aspiring replacement needs to have yelled at them, loudly, is "What are you going to do about Scotland, you tube?")

I actually do wonder if the recent resurgence in Labour - oh, my giddy aunt, 35%! - might actually be because of, and not in spite of, Corbyn.  Having weathered a miserable first six months, and with an operation that is slightly less amateur than it was before, perhaps he is starting to register with the electorate.

Which might mean if he is pushed out in favour of a blandly electable Blairite, we might see those promising numbers slump once again.  And we'll certainly see a Hell of a civil war beak out.  And the right wing won't be able to so much as whimper, having schemed and plotted and conspired against Corbyn from the start.

As for the other side, obviously the Conservatives have had a dreadful couple of weeks, with the Worst Budget Evah from George Osborne, the Iaian Duncan Smith resignation and the continual, ongoing problem of Europe.  It is likely they will find the next few weeks even more trying.  And if it does drag out, the calls for Cameron to go will get louder.

Whoever thought a leader who delivered an outright majority would collapse rapidly and utterly?  Clearly, ten months is a very long time in politics!

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