Sunday, 3 November 2019

Worth repeating forever

There have been three polls since the election was announced, and I will shamelessly steal YouGov / UK Polling Report's Anthony Wells' summary of them:
Survation – CON 34%, LAB 26%, LDEM 19%, BREX 12%, GRN 1%
Ipsos MORI – CON 41%, LAB 24%, LDEM 20%, BREX 7%, GRN 3%
YouGov – CON 36%, LAB 21%, LDEM 18%, BREX 13%, GRN 6%
I'll also shamelessly steal from his commentary on these polls:
It’s worth noting that that Tory lead is largely down to a split opposition. Even in the MORI poll the Conservatives have lost support since the election (in the YouGov and Survation polls they’ve lost a lot of support). This is not a popular government – in the MORI poll, their satisfaction rating is minus 55 – it’s just that the main opposition have lost even more support. The healthy Conservative lead is down to the fact that the Conservatives are retaining the bulk of the Leave vote, while the remain vote is split between Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the SNP, Plaid and so on. 
For as long as this is the case, the Conservatives should do well. If it should change they’ll struggle. If the Brexit party manage to get back into the race and take support from the Tories it would eat into their lead. The other risk for the Tories is if the Remain vote swings more decisively behind either Labour or the Liberal Democrats (or that there are signs of more effective tactical voting, winning seats off the Conservatives despite a split vote). Essentially Boris Johnson needs to keep the Leave vote united and the Remain vote divided.
The 'Vote stupid, get Tories' message can never be hammered home enough.

That said, I am feeling pessimistic today.  My hunch is that we will wait ... and wait ... and wait for the 'Corbyn surge' that never quite materialises.

I hope I am wrong.  I hope it is just early morning glumness following a late night (there was a rugby match) and the prospect of a Sunday afternoon spent doing frustratingly dull work.  I hope all the Conservative voters decide to stay at home because they are too sickened of all this nonsense to turn out to vote.  I hope Momentum organise furiously, target their resources well and get the vote out where it matters.

n.b. The bit that is worth 'repeating forever' is the bit about the dangers of splitting the vote, not the bit about me feeling a bit doubtful.

3 comments:

Sanctuary said...

The Lib-Dem vote is already starting to collapse, and I think the "Corbyn surge" is actually little more than people finally getting an unbiased assessment and more importantly the expensively educated Oxbridge media class actually having to get a bit more information for their stories than just leaks from Tory HQ.

I am mildly optimistic, but the absurd nature of FPP means who knows - If the Lib-Dems take more remain tories than remain Labour voters, or the Brexit party cuts 12% off Boris...

lurgee said...

Agreed. The campaign proper hasn't even started yet. I think the Lib Dems will be squeezed as it comes down to a choice between a second referendum and Johnson's deal, and people start thinking about other policy. Momentum will be able to run a stronger ground and social media campaign than the Lib Dems will and so a lot of these contested seats will move back towards Labour.

Maybe.

Sanctuary said...

The Lib-Dems seem to think promoting disinformation via fake polls results is the road to power. Utterly bizarre tactics for which they are being excoriated for in the UK media, but typical of the sort of smart-alec bubble politics I have come to expect from the rabble of radical centrists and anti-Corbynistas who have hijacked the Remain campaign and the Lib-Dems as their last, best hope of somehow regaining political relevance.

Asking for it ...

" I saw a newspaper picture, From the political campaign A woman was kissing a child, Who was obviously in pain. She spill...