Saturday, 30 November 2019

Boris Johnson Goes Down

It hasn't been a good week for the Conservatives, pollwise.  All major recent polls are showing their lead shrinking.

Comparing each pollster's current (between 29/11 and 22/11) and previous most recent poll.

  • Panel Base - Conservative lead down 2 points.
  • Com Res - Conservative lead down 3 points.
  • You Gov - Conservative lead down 1 point.
  • Kantar - Conservative lead down 8 points.
  • ICM - Conservative lead down 3 points.
  • Survation - Conservative lead down 3 points.
  • Deltapoll - Conservative lead down 2 points.
All from here.

Like I've said many times, I don't trust pollsters to get vote shares right; some of these polls are still showing outlandishly high Conservative leads. But I do expect them to be able to pick up indications movement. Which is what we're seeing.

I still think there is likely more movement than they are detecting, and things are much closer than they are showing.

So here's a song for Boris Johnson, which captures his arrogant sense of entitlement ("I tell all the girls they can kiss my heinie"), his sexual incontinence and his current polling:

Frank Zappa - predicting everything about Boris Johnson before anyone else knew Boris Johnson needed to be predicted.

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