This, of course, doesn't look good. Labour have been chucking big, headline grabbing policies left, right and centre ... Well, maybe not right. Left, left and centre left, perhaps.Westminster voting intention:— Britain Elects (@britainelects) 16 November 2019
CON: 44% (+3)
LAB: 28% (-1)
LDEM: 14% (-1)
BREX: 6% (-)
via @OpiniumResearch, surveyed this week
Chgs. w/ 08 Nov
But then again, Opinium have always tended to show big Tory leads. The 16% there isn't too outlandish for them. Every single one of their last ten polls has given the Tories a double digit lead. And 5 out of that 10 have given it as 15% or 16%.
Another interesting (for me) feature of Opinium's polling is that they seem to have recently started including the nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales - and this seems to have coincided with the ballooning of the Conservative lead.
What could this mean?
1 - The Tories became wildly popular at that time and it is just a coincidence.
2 - Everyone in Scotland who supported SNP but didn't have the option said they'd vote Labour instead, and that was a lot of people; one they got the option of saying they'd vote SNP instead they did so, and Labour's vote collapsed.
3 - Opinium made some big methodological changes at the time and now their polling is completely bonkers.
Looking back at Opinium's polling pedigree, I find more reasons to be sceptical. In 2017, their polls in the month leading up to the election gave leads of 15%, 13%, 10%, 6% and 7% - so they did detect a narrowing of the Conservative lead, but seem to have consistently underestimated how tight the race was.
So if Opinium say the lead is 16% it is probably 8%.