Sunday, 6 October 2019

Guardian: Poll shows DISASTER for Corbyn and the End of Times

The Guardian - ever eager to forewarn of doom and disaster on the left - are leading with a new poll from Opinium, which puts the Conservatives 15% clear of Labour.
Con 38% +2
Lab 23% -1
Lib Dem 15% -5
Brexit 12% +1
Green 4% +2
This isn't good news, and it would be very bad news if it wasn't Opinium; they consistently give the Conservatives large leads; the largest, indeed.  Looking at recent polling (i.e. September to present moment), here's how the different companies compare:

Large Tory leads (6% or over in majority of included polls):
  • You Gov (leads range from 7% to 14%, 7 polls included)
  • Opinium (Leads range from 10% to 15%, 5 polls)
  • Kantar (Leads of 14%, 1 poll)
  • Ipsos Mori (Lead of 9%, 1 poll)
Small Tory Leads (5% or less in majority of included polls):
  • Panelbase (Lead of 3%, 1 poll)
  • ComRes (Leads range from TIE to 4%, 5 polls)
  • Survation (Leads range from 3% to 5%, 2 polls)
  • Deltapoll (Lead of 3%, 1 poll; BUT a poll released 31/8 gave a Conservative lead of 11%!; make of that what you will.)
(BMG are also included in Britain Elects' table but don't seem to have released a September poll.)

So, from that, what can we conclude?  Nothing.  The polls are all over the place but at least individual pollsters seem to be finding fairly consistent results.  Someone is definitely wrong, and it is just about possible everyone is.

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