Saturday, 26 November 2011

2011 Election

Don't know if I'll do the full thing like I did last time, but I'll record whatever vague thoughts I may have.

I voted for the Mana Party, oddly. In the voting booth, I found I still hadn't forgiven Labour for that Free Trade Deal with China. Since Phil Goff had categorically ruled out a deal with Mana it made it a logical place to cast a leftwing, anti-Labour vote. I could have gone with the Greens, but I figured they would simply prop up Labour (or, Heaven forbid, National!). And I figured the Greens were comfortable enough, whereas Mana needed more of a boost.

Prediction @ 7pm - Labour in the low 30s, National in the high 40s. Greens 12%. NZ First 4.8%. No ACT in parliament tommorrow. that's what I think will happen and I think it is likely to be the best result the left can hope for. Probably, stopping the asset sales will be the best outcome.

CLARIFICATION - when I say low thirties, I mean VERY LOW. And when I say high forties, I mean VERY HIGH. I'm not envisaging a patchwork coalition based around Labour and the Greens. 31% or 32% versus 47% or 48%.

7.20 Wonder if this will be a 2005 election, where Labour started 10% behind and dragged it back, point by painful point, or if it will be a 2008 election, where there was very little movement from the initial shares?

Haven't said anything about the voting system referendum, because I've not been able to seriously countenance the idea of MMP being rejected ...

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