Friday, 1 October 2010

Even the Tories don't want the Tories

ICM's latest poll puts the two main parties pretty much level - Labour a snivel ahead, but all within the margin of error, so nothing to be excited about. Generally matches the trend in YouGov daily polls, thought it puts the Lib Dem support somewhat higher.

CON - 35%
LAB - 37%
LIB DEM - 18%
OTHER - 10%

UK polling Report highlights an interesting oddity:
A final intriguing point was ICM’s question on what people would like to happen at the next election. The overall picture was that 40% wanted a Conservative led government (19% on their own, 21% with the Lib Dems), 39% a Labour led government (26% on their own, 13% with the Lib Dems). The interesting bit was that amongst Conservative voters only 50% wanted the Conservatives on their own, 41% prefered a Con-LD coalition. In contrast, when YouGov have asked the same question they have found 72% of Conservatives would prefer the party to rule alone, 25% prefer the Con-LD coalition. (1)
So the majority of the faction that want a Conservative led government would prefer a repeat of the Con-Dem coalition, whereas most of the Labour bloc want a it straight. And even among Conservative voters, 41% would rather have their party in coalition, as opposed to in government by themselves.

Even the Tories don't want the Tories.

What's really interesting, however, is this suggests the electorate may be more electorally savvy, and receptive to proportional representation than the politicians think they are.

Before the Red Hordes get too smug, however, there is a bizarre twist - The Guardian write up on this reveals that, while the Tories don't want the Tories, labour voters don't really want Ed Milliband as PM, and a substantial minortiy would prefer David Cameron:
Labour's new leader has so far had little chance to make an impression. Among definite Labour voters only 52% say Ed Miliband would make the best prime minister of the three party leaders while 24% name David Cameron. By contrast, 89% of Conservatives pick Cameron. More Lib Dem voters also back Cameron as a competent prime minister than back Clegg. Among all voters, 20% think Ed Miliband would make the most competent prime minister, compared with 47% who say Cameron and 10% Clegg. (2)
Perhaps a Labour led coalition with David Cameron as PM would make everyone happy?
1 - "ICM/Guardian – 35/37/18," posted on UK Polling report by Anthony Wells, 30th of September, 2010. (http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2819)
2 - "Morale boost for Ed Miliband as poll gives Labour first lead in three years," by Julian Glover. Published in The Guardian, 30th of September, 2010. (
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/sep/30/ed-miliband-labour-icm-poll)

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