Tuesday, 5 February 2008

Trotter's predictions for 2008

After admitting he didn't do very well in 2007, Pompous Chris studies the entrails and makes his forecasts for 2008. Worth keeping to hand:

The 2008 general election campaign will be the dirtiest in New Zealand's history.

The curbs on "third parties" imposed by the Electoral Finance Act will expose serious weaknesses in the campaigning ability of a National Party operating without the assistance of powerful extra-parliamentary allies.

Significant polling reverses for National will provoke elements of the news media especially the New Zealand Herald into taking up the role formerly played by third parties.

Extreme partisan media campaigning will provoke a backlash from left-leaning readers, listeners and viewers.

Labour and its allies will harness this "anti-establishment" backlash in a grass-roots campaign of "The People versus The Wreckers".

National receives more votes than Labour, but is unable to form a government Labour wins a fourth term in alliance with the Progressives, the Greens and the Maori Party. "A silver and a bronze beat the gold". (1)

Note the wobbling on the Maori Party. Trotter can't seem to decide it they are 'in' or 'out.' He's written articles recently indicating he thinks they'll go to the cross benches, including one prior to this piece. I suspect that they'll opt for integrity and leave the other parties to sort it out amongst themselves - they've got a lot to lose by putting National in power (2) and may profit, strategically, by showing Labour they can not take any degree of support for granted.

There isn't really anything too spectacular or controversial on the list, which is what I have come to expect of Trotter, recently. Did it really take him the first three weeks of the year to think of that under-nourished list? I could have dreamed it up while digesting Christmas dinner.

Sadly, Trotter seems to be intent on spreading himself too thinly - while he might enjoy his role as a sort of Kiwi Michael Moore, he's missed the chance to be New Zealand's Gore Vidal.
1 - 'Trotter's 2008 predictions,' by Chris trotter in the Sunday Star times, 23rd of January 2008. reproduced on stuff.co.nz. (http://www.stuff.co.nz/sundaystartimes/4345628a25945.html)
2 - As described previously on lefthandpalm: http://lefthandpalm.blogspot.com/2008/02/maori-partys-dilemna.html

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