Wednesday, 27 February 2008

Climate doing what the experts predicted it would

"Ding, dong, the witch is dead! Global warming is no more! The Earth is cooling!"

Expect this claim to reverberate around the bloglands, and perhaps even weasel its way into the speeches and pronouncements of some politicians and special interest groups. For, verily, the Earth is cooling, according to a report (1) on the (anti-AGW) Daily Tech blog.

The anti-AGW crowd would do well to remember that this was predicted last year, by the Hadley Centre, when they issued a ten year forecast:

... at least half of the years between 2009 and 2014 are likely to exceed existing records.

However, the Hadley Centre researchers said that the influence of natural climatic variations were likely to dampen the effects of emissions from human activities between now and 2009.

But over the decade as a whole, they project the global average temperature in 2014 to be 0.3C warmer than 2004. (2)
I predicted (3) at the time that a dip in temperature would be seized on by the anti-AGW crowd as proof that global warming was a hoax. That doesn't make me Nostradamus - it does, however, show how obvious their tactics are.

I'm not suggesting that the 'natural climactic variations' described by the Haldey Centre account for 100% of the drop. The truth is probably complex anmd messy. Natural climate variotions, such as the mitigation of El Nino may play a part. A tail off in solar (YES) activity might contribute. ANd the predicted volatility of global weather will also have had an impact. All this is lost on the AGW-deniers, of course.

Never mind that the experts predicted warming, and it happened. Never mind that the experts predicted cooling, and, right on cue, it is happening. Never mind what the experts say, a bunch of Moomins armed with keyboards have decided climate change is a hoax. So it must be.

"Ding dong, the witch is dead ..." Repeat as necessary, as loud as possible to drown out any dissent.
1 - "Temperature Monitors Report Widescale Global Cooling," posted by Michael Asher on Daily Tech, 26th of February, 2008. (http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature+Monitors+Report+Widescale+Global+Cooling/article10866.htm)
2 - "Ten-year climate model unveiled," unattributed BBC article, 9th of August, 2007. (
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6939347.stm)
3 - as described previously on lefthandpalm:
http://lefthandpalm.blogspot.com/2007/08/another-of-durkinism-crumbles-into-dust.html

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