- Nat 43%
- Labour 27.5%
- Greens 13%
- NZF 7%
- Con 4%
- IMP 2% and holding Te Tai Tokerau
- Maori 1.5% but holding two Maori seats
- ACT, UF <1 but="" each="" electorates="" holding="" li="">1>
Which, if it comes to pass, will give us:
- National 54
- Labour 34
- Greens 16
- NZ First 9
- Mana 3
- Maori 2
- ACT 1
- UF 1
Which gives the Labour Green bloc 50 MPs, and the National-ACT bloc 55.
So it comes down, preditably, to Which way NZ First will jump. I would assume he would go with National as the largest party - but Winston has been making sufficient noises to make me wonder if he would sooner play the role of constructive opposition, allowing him to make a lot of noise and exert influence while not being embroiled in what I suspect will be a massively unpopular government.
Obviously, the exclusion of the Conservative Party will be significant. If they do manage to scrape in at 5%, that changes everything, utterly. Even though I dislike everything about them, from Colin Craig' silly alliterative name to their policies, I would actually prefer them to do that - I don't like wasted votes. Ideally, the 5% threshold should go. If New Zealanders want to vote for silly parties, then they can have a silly parliament. In the meantime, I don't like the idea of people's views being excluded, even if I disagree with them, because of a stupid rule.
UF and Maori Party are also up for grabs, I think - they might tend to National but I think they could support a Labour lead goverment. And if Mana can't be partof a Labour lead government - a very short sighted decision by Cunliffe - they can perhaps still play a positive role through confidence and supply arrangements - a position they might enjoy as much as Peters would.
You notice I don't mention the Internet Party. If Harre makes it into parliament, I wouldn't be surprised if the Internet Party simple dissolves itself into Mana. Dotcom will not find it useful for his continued efforts to avoid justice.
So, sadly, it looks like tomorrow will result in a period of anarchy, possibly leading to the Zombie Apocalypse.