Friday, 30 May 2014

Newark by-election

The electoral excitement just doesn't stop coming in Britain.  After the dizzy thrills of the local and Euro elections, up next is a crucial by-election, brought about by Patrick Mercer resigning his seat in Newark.

Normally a safe Conservative stronghold, a pre-poll poll of Newark suggests the UKIP might pull off a stunner, if Labour voters are smart enough to vote tactically: 

CON 36%(-18)
LAB 27%(+5)
LD 5%(-15)
UKIP 28%(+24)

 Obviously, the 28% voting UKIP aren't going to vote Labour; but Labour voters should think of switching to the UKIP to humiliate the Tories. It might be strategically astute for Labour as they would benefit from the UKIP being in parliament and increasing the likelihood of a fatal split in the right vote.

The aggregate loss of support for the coalition, 33%, is awesome.  True, Mercer was a corrupt self serving Tory (ain't they all) but he was also very popular.  The people of Newark - hardly radical country - seem to be repudiating the coalition.

Will they be smart / cynical enough to switch votes to the UKIP?

No comments:

Prediction

There's nothing stupider on the internet than putting down your thoughts in an indisputable form.  So that, of course is what I am going...