Wednesday, 21 May 2014

Euro elections

I predict:

CON 22%
LAB 30%
LDEM 10%,
UKIP 30%
GRN 5%
BNP 3%

... or something like that.

The UKIP will hail the result - whatever it is - as a 'massive break through,' a 'transformational' moment in British politics and so on.  They will, briefly, enjoy an increase in support for Westminster, topping 20% consistently until support starts to fade away again as people become tired of Farage and the media obsession with him.  They will poll about 12% in the 2015 election and get one vanity seat with Farage if they are lucky.

Labour will claim victory as they thoroughly beat the Tories, heroically ignoring the fact a solid 50% of the population voted for insane right-wing parties, not for them.  Even if the people voting Tory and UKIP aren't baked in mad-people, that makes it worse in some ways - they are so unenthused by Labour they vote for the Tories and UKIP regardless of how they know it is an insane, disgusting thing to do.

The Lib Dems will claim they have 'steadied the ship' and 'turned the tide' in a revolting display of metaphor mixing.  They may well have done; but the ship is no longer the sleek Destroyer they had in the last election; it is a leaky little life boat, and the huddled survivors on board are eyeing each other up, wondering when they'll have to resort to cannibalism.

The Tories will bleat about how they are doing really well, all things considered, and it is quite normal for a governing party to be deeply unpopular in mid term, trying to hide the fact it isn't really mid term any more and even if it was, any party taking over from the PR disaster of Brown's Labour government should have enjoyed a gold plated honeymoon lasting until about 2050.

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