Saturday, 16 August 2008

What the #%&@! is wrong with journalists in this country?

According to an unattributed article (1) in the Dom Post, National are "romping ahead" and, both the Morgan and Fairfax Media-Neilsen polls "have National steaming ahead and well on course to govern alone."

This, even though the Morgan poll puts National on 48% - which, last time I checked, was somewhat less than 50%.

Even assuming the Rodney Hyde Vanity Party ACT creep back into parliament via Epsom, ACT can only cough up 1.5% of the vote, leaving the possibility of being able to form a majority dependent on electoral overhang. Sorry, but that isn't "well on course to govern alone."

Further, the Dom Post article neglected to mention some of the other findings of the Morgan poll:
  • The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen for the second New Zealand Morgan Poll in a row, rising strongly to 103.5 (up 12pts). It is now at its highest level since being at 104.5 in early May. Now more New Zealanders 44.5% (up 6%) say the country is “heading in the right direction” compared to 41% (down 6%) that say the country is “heading in the wrong direction.”
  • There has been a similar rise in the Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating which has also strengthened, up 7.1 points to 94.9, and up 12.9 points since early July.
  • Morgan also supply a handy graph of polling history which shows that the 0.5% increase in support for National recorded in this poll appears to be a blip ona longer term slide, from a high of over 50%, while Labour has been consistently picking up support (2).

None of this is mentioned in the Dom Post article, which instead takes time to detail the results of the Fairfax Media-Neilsen poll, which seems an outlandish and questionable survey, as it claims all the minor parties will be banished from Parliament. No consideration is given to the make up of parliament based on the Morgan poll, or the possible significance of the other areas Morgan researched.

No wonder author of the piece was too embarrassed to put a name to it.

1 - "Nats romping ahead," unattributed article in the Dominion Post, 16th of August, 2008. Reproduced on stuff.co.nz. (http://www.stuff.co.nz/4657649a11.html)
2 - "New Zealand National Party (48%) hold strong lead over Labour (34%)," poll results published by Roy Morgan Research, 15th of August, 2008. (
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/4314/)

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