Sunday, 17 August 2008

New poll

From One News, repeating the picture of the Morgan poll - Labour support creeping upwards to a healthier 37%, and National steady with "the support of more than half of all voters," (um, don't we get a number for that?). Clark seems starting to win back some ground in the preferred PM stakes, now at 33% to Key's 36% (1).

Interesting that this is the second of three recent polls to put the minor parties out of parliament without electorate wins (2). This seems unlikely - they will pick up support during the campaign, unless there is something unusual about this campaign.

Both Labour and the Nats will take comfort from this, publically. I'd suspect that Labour will be the more genuinely happy, as they are finally starting to see some progress. Of course, National can't really go any higher than the low 50s, so they can also be content - but realistically, they can expect some fallout from the secret taping and the 'Hidden agenda' campaign. That won't show up in this poll, but will probably knock them below 50% next month in most polls - assuming Labour keeps up some sort of pressure and doesn't cock up spectacularly - and under 45% in the Morgan polls which seem to predict a lower - probably more accurate - level of support).

Of course, having stuck my neck out like this, it's a certainty that Labour will probably drop down to the mid-20s and National will soar into the mid 60s ...
1 - "National on track for election gold," unattributed ONE News story, published on the ONE News website, 17th of August, 2008. (http://tvnz.co.nz/view/page/576182/2010633)
2 - The other was a Fairfax Media-Neilsen poll, detailed in the Dominion Post: "Nats romping ahead," unattributed article in the Dominion Post, 16th of August, 2008. Reproduced on stuff.co.nz. (http://www.stuff.co.nz/4657649a11.html).
See also my comments on this story, described previosuly on lefthandpalm:
http://lefthandpalm.blogspot.com/2008/08/what-is-wrong-with-journalists-in-this.html

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