Thursday, 16 December 2010

British polling

Polls for the first ten days continue to show a very mixed picture, with the Tories 'winning' most, but no decisive trend (1). Polls since the 10th - not yet included - emphasize the indecisive picture:
DATE-CON-LAB-LIB-LEAD
10 Dec 40 42 9 Lab +2
9 Dec 41 39 11 Con +2
8 Dec 41 41 8 Tie
7 Dec 42 39 9 Con +3
6 Dec 42 39 10 Con +3
3 Dec 41 39 10 Con +2
2 Dec 40 40 11 Tie
1 Dec 41 38 11 Con +3
It's worth noting all these polls are by You Gov; while there's nothing wrong with that, it means any bias in their polling method won't be corrected by other polls (and, of course, any rolling average will probably reflect You Gov's biases, due to their daily polling, compared to monthly polls run by most other companies). Still, they are generally in line with other companies.

Interesting that the Tory support seems firm at 40% - up on their general election performance. They seem to have leached some support from then rightwing of the Lib Dems, while Labour are profiting by defections from the left ...

Also worth noting that Labour are doing well in spite of the failry negative view the electorate have of Ed Milliband. He really isn't impressing anyone, yet his party is still strong. Be interesting to see what happens if he does manage to start asserting himself and building a positive, effectual image with the voters.

Big if, mind you.
1 - As per UK Polling Report, viewed on 27th of Novemeber, 2010. (http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/)

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