Friday, 30 April 2010

Warm winter ahead, lefthandpalm predicts scorcher year

Niwa forecast that the next three months will be above the seasonal average, with occasional cold snaps (1).

Lefthandpalm dares go further and predicts that 2010 will be a scorcher, globally. This breaks the usual trend of hot years such as 1998 or 2005 being followed by cooler years, a pattern which suggests seasonal variation (early/late winters, long/short summers) has played a significant role. But even though 2009 was a very hot year (2) globally, I suspect that 2010 will be almost as hot, if not as hot. I say: top five for sure, almost certainly top three.

To forestall any accusations of weaselling, later on, I'll say now 'll be using the GISS data set.
1 - "A mild start to winter, and the end of el nino," press release by NIWA, 29th of April, 2010. Reproduced on stuff.co.nz. (http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC1004/S00068.htm)
2 - "2009: 2nd warmest year on record: end of warmest decade," press release by NASA-GISS, 21st of January, 2010. (http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100121/)

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