The Greens look comfortable on 6%, but the Progressives, ACT, New Zealand First, United Future and everyone else needing a constiuency seat to survive. Anderton and Dunne are safe, they'll be returned by electorates for as long as they draw breath, and perhaps even after that. But Winston will have to reclaim Tauranga, and Rodney Hide hold onto Epsom to keep their parties going. Both possible, but not certain.
Of course, the polls next year will be very different. National will come down, the minor parties will go up. But if the minor parties, other than the Greens, stay weak (below 5%), National could have some problems cobbling together a coalition - the Greens won't have anything to do with them (EXCLUSIVE BRETHERN!), the Maori Party might not want much to do with a party still intending to abolish the Maori seats, just not right now, and any coalition relying on Rodney Hide and Winston Peters will be a very strange, slightly demented beast indeed. You have to wonder if the New Zealnd electorate, MMP-savvy, will want a government - already making it's rightwing intentions clear - that is beholden to even more extreme libertarian chauvanistic parties.
1 - One News / Colmar Brunton Poll, dated 14th of October, 2007. (http://images.tvnz.co.nz/tvnz_images/news2007/colmar_brunton/october07/oct_partyvote.pdf)
2 - As described previously on lefthandpalm: http://lefthandpalm.blogspot.com/2007/10/national-freak-out-with-lonney-tunes.html