2023 Election live blog

Which I will attempt to update throughout the night, depending on my whims and whether the night seems worth talking about.

This election will be lubricated with Glenglassaugh Revival single Malt.  Never encountered it before and it seems to be a bit of a new thing, though with some sort of pedigree.  I imagine it will taste like whisky.

7.00 I am predicting / guessing the raw numbers will look like:

National   35%

Labour     32%

Greens     14%

ACT         9%

NZ First   6%

TPM         3%

Wasted     2%

Obviously I have National very low and the Greens very high.

That would represent a disaster for National as they have failed to see of a rudderless Labour Party without any vision and with a poor track record beyond their COVID response.  Luxon looked so awkward in the last leader's debate I suspect some will have had last minute qualms.  Would it mean a National government?  That would depend - agonisingly - on inscrutable factors.  Possibly, but hopefully not.  Because a rudderless Labour Party without any vision and with a poor track record will be better than Luxon style National seasoned with David Seymour.

There will be weeks of Winston seeing what he can milk out of the situation.  He wants those baubles, but he also wants to puncture David Seymour.  Keeping ACT sidelined - like he did with the Greens in 2017 - will be a goal.

7.05 Will our next PM be called Chris, Chris ... or Winston? 

7.06 Crikey.  Simon Bridges and Meteria Turei.  Why can't TVNZ get some better politicians to talk?

7.07 The Glenglassaugh is disappointing.  Prickly and astringent, something of nail polish remover in the nose and the mouth.

7.08 Turei describes the Greens as an old party.  Are they now part of the establishment?  Should we be looking for a replacement on the democratic left?

7.12 Shit balls those early votes.  BUT that will (probably) change.  Remember 2005  where National started well ahead and Labour clawed them back.

7.15 Is this Labour's 2001?

7.18 It would be hilarious if - after all his hard work and my earlier comments about him driving David Seymour into the wilderness - he ended up there himself, unneeded and uncalled for ...

7.35 14% in and not much change in the vote share.  NACT are hovering at 50%.  If they start to fall, even slightly, Winston emerges, like some dark monster from the primordial depths ...

7.38 Shane Jones might get back to parliament.  This is getting worse ...

7.40 Jessica Mutch McKay smile beatifically after realising Winston Peters "might not be needed" ... a lot of journalists might be cackling with glee at the thought of his frustration.

7.41 Almost 20% counted and no sense that the numbers are going to move much.  I suspect Labour will be lucky to scrape over 30%.

7.45 As it become more likely National and Act will be able to govern alone, I would like to announce I was right in my prediction - the polls were indeed wrong.  Just the opposite way to how I thought they would err.

8.00 Chris Luxon's kids are better at talking to the media than he is.  I want them to run the country, not him.

8.02 I would like to apologise to New Zealand for giving two ticks to Labour.  I should have remembered I never manage to vote for the winning party.  I note the Greens have done better than they have in the elections where I have voted for them.

8.06 This doesn't feel as gutting to me as the 2019 election in Britain did.  First, as a Scot, I have a visceral response to British politics  I just don't get for NZ politics.  Also, in 2019 I genuinely thought the polls were going to blunder again, in Labour's favour.  I had already accepted National would be the biggest party and the only question would be whether they would be able to govern with ACT or would be forced to negotiate with Winston Peters.  But it is still pretty grim ...

8.17 Will Labour actually get enough MPs to hold a leadership election?

8.23 It looks likely that TPM will win most / all of the Maori electorates and create an overhang in parliament.  This might have the curious effect of denying NACT an outright magority and force them into some sort of seedy arrangement with Winston ... Which would be fun to watch but would probably reinforce the right's desire to get rid of these electorates.

8.26 Searching for any silver linings at all on this grim night,  I was thinking that at least none of the bizarre fringe parties manage to get a toehold.  Then I remember Winston is back ...

8.34 Melissa Lee look likely to take Mount Albert for National.  Given it is Helen Clark and Jacinda Ardern's former seat, does this make her the next leader of the Labour Party?

8.36 David Cunliffe suddenly appears on TVNZ, following Bridges and Turei.  Are they doing some sort of Pokemon style Gotta Get 'Em All with failed former leaders?

8.51 Worth noting that at this stage most of the votes being reported are still advance votes.  Any slight late rally by Labour won't be getting picked up yet.  I don't think it will make much of a difference, but this was always going to be an election decided at the margins.  As on-the-day votes start to get counted, we may still see some shift in the numbers, and that NACT majority start to look questionable.  Could Labour still recover to 30%?  Will NACT stumble?  Will Winston be thrown a lifeline?

9.03 Grant Robertson on TVNZ, looking very chipper, like he is anticipating a promotion.  Third time lucky, eh, Grant?  Based on the current prediction Labour will get 33 MPs, he only needs to persuade 16 of them to vote for him to make it happen.  He’s only 51 – which I no longer consider old – and has plenty of experience and energy. I suspect he’d get it simply because in the aftermath of this walloping no one who makes it back into parliament else will want the gig.

9.14 Labour SURGE to 25.75%!  

9.32 Another micro surge - Labour creep up to 26.03% in the advance votes, dragging the overall tally to 25.95% ... It is strange the advance vote is leading the on-the-day tally.  Did Labour manage to repel voters as the campaign wore on?

9.38 And again, advance votes SURGE to 26.12%; on-the-day creeps up to 25.96%!

9.43 I remember the 2002 election and how for a brief moment the pundits were talking about how National were poised to be the largest party and a 'Grand coalition of the right' might govern New Zealand.  Then it all collapsed to an appalling night for National.  Obviously that is not going to happen tonight but I am intrigued by how National are wavering on the edge of needing a three way coalition to govern, in spite of being up against a tired two term government that has nothing to offer but broken promises, failed pledges and the vague memory of how they maybe once saved the nation from the Covids.

9.55 NACT are only just over 50% now, and then there is the overhang to be negotiated.  I suspect they are going to wake up to a hangover tomorrow and the realisation they might have to give Winston that call.  And he will not be in a mood for compromise.

10.06 NACT dip under 50%.

10.18 David Seymour is speaking, trying to look pleased with the idea of watching Winston eating his lunch tomorrow, and every day for the next three years.

10.24 A curious moment of crossover is about to occur, as Labour's On The Day vote starts to lead the Advance vote.  So now we will see how much difference Angry Chris made.  Of course, we're talking dire numbers here - 26.26% ...

10.27 Jake Tame suddenly looking nervous as he realises everything he's said for the last three hours has been wrong.

10.38 Nat's under 40%.  Act on 9.19% and looking likely to fall off slightly.  In the immortal last words of infamous Scottish cannibal murderer Sawney Bean, "This isn't over!  It will never be over!"

11.05 The Labour SURGE is surging very slowly.  About 0.7% over two hours.  I am beginning to wonder if the South Auckland electorates are going to deliver the boost I anticipated ...

11.12 Still, there are some positives here.  ACT are stalled at 9%, for all David Seymour's antics.  This represents the apex of ACT's power.  They will be dangerous, because they will always be hovering about on the right, always threatening to put National into power.  But they are limited.  No matter how much they try to disguise their economic Darwinist delirium and category error individualism with gurning and twerking, they will never have the influence they seemed to threaten.  So the question is how can we push them into the dustbin of history and make them properly, finally irrelevant?

11.20 I must confess.  For three years (more or less) I have been saying that Christopher Luxon can not possibly be Prime Minister of New Zealand.  I based this on the fact he is bald and bald people are intrinsically off putting.  I speak here as a bald person so I am allowed.  I am willing to confess that - unless "a most amazing miracle" (Ibsen) occurs - I may have been wrong on this.  He seems to be talking about something on TV just now.

11.40 NACT trending towards 48%.  Special votes, overhangs and wasted votes will screw up all calculations for now.  I think National should have put in Labour in 2020 performance.  They fell slightly short, and may live to rue it.

11.41 Jessica Mutch-McKay on Winston Peters making pleasant overtures in his speech earlier in the evening: "In a tone I wasn't expecting from him" i.e. pleasant and conciliatory.  Don't worry, Jess.  Winston is acting nice until he know s what the situation is, then he will tear them to pieces.

12.23  I think I am still awake, though very, very far removed from sober.  TV1 has followed its election coverage with a mockumentary about the spread of Covid in Britain and the Johnson government's flailing incompetence.  Which suggests someone responsible for programing is very astute indeed.

1.08 I know all you lightweights are asleep but the Nats are on 39.99% and ACT might be about to drop below 9%. The NZ film Panthers is on TV1. Feels kinda subversive.

Something something something

 Apparently there is something happening somewhere, but we aren't allowed to discuss it for another hour.

Mutterings about Musk

Going to try to get into the blogging thing again (ha!) what with anew PM, an election coming up and all that.

So today I thought I'd start small and simple, by merely tackling the world's (second) richest man.

I am not suggesting Elon Musk literally light this fire.  But he is doing it, figuratively by allowing knobends to howl bollocks on Twitter

I'm no fan of Elon Musk.  You don't want to know why, but I'll tell you anyways, because that's what blogging is.

To me, his helming of tesla has not been 're-writing the narrative' or 're-framing the debate' about electric vehicles.  Instead, the companies pursuit of flash, style and higher end consumers has essentially re-affirmed the prejudices surrounding EVs.

Tesla had an opportunity to completely change our relationship with vehicles.  Having licked the technology far more effectively than any of their competitors, they could have produced the electric vehicle we actually need - a cheap, no frills but functioning car that the typical consumer could a) afford and b) want to drive.

Instead, they kept on (and keep on) releasing increasingly absurdly over-specced, overpriced vehicles that are brilliant to drive but not actually sifting the dial much in terms of mass take up of EVs.  We don't need cars that people with a spare $100K can afford, because even the second- or third-hand value of that vehicle will make it unobtainable to the average driver.

(Incidentally, I do not hold with the stereotype of  Tesla owners as smug narcissists who wants to demonstrate wealth through toys.  But I suspect that's how Elon Musk views them, because that's the sort of person he is, and he can't imagine anyone one else being different.)

Oh, and the whole 'pedo guy' thing.  What can you say about someone who manages to taint the story of the Tham Luang rescue of 2018?

This tirade was prompted by this:

Search for the word “climate” on Twitter and the first automatic recommendation isn’t “climate crisis” or “climate jobs” or even “climate change” but instead “climate scam”.

Clicking on the recommendation yields dozens of posts denying the reality of climate change and making misleading claims about efforts to mitigate it.

(Snip)

Tweets containing “climate scam” or other terms linked to climate change denial rose 300 per cent in 2022, according to a report released last week by the nonprofit Advance Democracy. 

So, yeah, Musk managed the unthinkable and made Twitter worse.  Respect is due.

Of course, Musk would say this is neither his fault, nor his problem.  He is, after all, a 'free speech absolutist' - expect when people tweet the location of his private jet.  Because, apparently, tweeting the whereabouts of his private jet is dangerous.

But allowing climate denialism to spread isn't.

Real royalty dying off

 Jean Luc Godard and Hilary Mantel within a few days of each other?

FFS, 2022.  Juck fuck off already.

Things We Already Knew - Jonathan Freedland is a Pillock

 Jonathan Freedland uses the fall of Boris Johnson to continue to fight two wars that any sane, non-obsessed man would have put behind him.  In an article titled Everything Tainted By Johnson's Lies Needs To Be Undone, he first decides 2022 is CLEARLY the most opportune time to have another go at Jeremy Corbyn and the buffoons who made him leader:

In 2019, it put to the electorate an alternative to Johnson who, by every possible data point, was shown losing and losing badly. By sticking with Jeremy Corbyn in the face of all that evidence, Labour flung the door of Downing Street wide open for Johnson and all but ushered him in.

No, Jonno.  YOU and your Guardianista, relentless anti-Corbynista partisans in the media flung the doors of Downing Street open to Johnson and ushered him in, because you would rather see that happen than see Corbyn win.

Don't try to shift the blame to the Labour membership who elected Corbyn leader twice - remember it is THEIR PARTY, you arrogant prick.  If you don't like their choices, feel free to join the Tory Party, or perhaps the Lib Dems - where you might feel comfortable as you (like them) like to enable Conservative governments.

Given your bully pulpit in the Guardian you COULD have supported the Corbyn project and helped 'usher in' a social democratic government that might have made things a bit better for the people of Britain.  Instead, you and your trendy journo mates and buddies in the rightwing of the Labour Party opted to torpedo the leader of the Labour Party.

And when your first attempt to do it failed, you redoubled your efforts and the result was an 80 seat conservative majority.  Which you clearly preferred - since you've never said so much as "Aw, rats, that sucks!"

Now, years later, instead of hanging your head in shame when you look at the consequences of your decisions back in 2017 you indulge in a spot of victim blaming, telling the membership they were too stupid and short sighted to see what was obviously going to happen.

Yeah, maybe.  Perhaps they were foolish thinking the right wing of the Labour party might tolerate a left wing leader.

I don't think you are stupid, by the way.  You knew what you were doing and could clearly see what was going to happen, and did it anyway.

The other war Freedland is still fighting the apparently unending attempt to turn back time and undo Brexit.  He is pretty explicit about the, not pining in maudlin mode for the good old days of ever closer union: "Surely, a country will lose faith in the product it bought when the man who sold it to them has been exposed as a fraud."

Mate, this is your delusions speaking again.  Boris Johnson did not "sell" Brexit to the British people.  They voted for it in 2015, remember.  He wasn't Prime Minister then.  He wasn't even the NEXT Prime Minister, or the Prime Minister who oversaw the crucial preliminaries, or triggered Article 50.  He was a part of the Leave campaign but only one - to characterise him as the one who "sold" Brexit to the public signals a height of delusion on Freedland's part that is almost Johnsonesque.  the arrogant assumption of superior insight and dismissal of those silly little people - with their Jeremy Corbyn and their Brexits - makes you wonder if Mr Freedland and Mr Johnson are not, in fact the same person.

But Freeland's bonkers narrative requires a magical re-writing of the past just like he had to re-write history to blame 209 on Corbyn and the dim witted members of the Labour party, and not the intractable MPs and journalists who set out to destroy him.  Somehow, the collapse of the Johnson administration negates the referendum, the 2019 election somehow means all that history can be undone.  Jonno, mate, the reason there are people saying leaving the EU was a mistake is the same reason they were saying we should leave in the first place - because they are unhappy with the way things are and are looking for a panacea or at least something to blame.

But like the pillock you are you think people being unsatisfied with life in general means they actually support your pet cause.  they don't, you sheltered Guardian column writing pillock.  They are fucked off because life is shit and it is shit for a lot of people all around the world and it is likely going to stay shit for a long time leaving the EU was only a teeny-tiny contributing factor to that shitness.  It didn't cause Russian to invade Ukraine, it didn't cause Covid, it didn't cause climate change, it didn't cause the cost of living crisis or the breakdown in the NHS or social services or fear of crime or mental health issues.

But YOU, by helping sabotaging a decent prospect of getting a half decent leftish government into Downing Street - by helping sell Johnson to the British public by focusing your energies on destroying Corbyn - did contribute more than any decent person should to some of those festering cankers.

You, Sir, helped bring all this about.  You are tainted by Johnsonism.  So hang your head in shame, or fuck off.

Dear striking British workers: F___ You! Love, the Labour Party

 From the desk of Keir "Patriotic Duty" Starmer:

“We have robust lines. We do not want to see these strikes to go ahead with the resulting disruption to the public. The government have failed to engage in any negotiations.

“However, we also must show leadership and to that end, please be reminded that frontbenchers including [parliamentary private secretaries] should not be on picket lines. 

 “Please speak to all the members of your team to remind them of this and confirm with me that you have done so.”

 So, yeah, there you have it.  Adulate the queen and to Hell with the revolting proles.  It's satirically hilarious but unfortunately true.  We must tug the forelock to the monarch, because she's a nice old bird who has been around forever; we must not do anything as vulgar as acknowledge the historical roots of the Labour PArty in the union movement or show solidarity with workers in general.

Because that might make Labour less electable and thus jeopardise the job security of Mr Starmer and his allies.  Lenin wrote about the aristocracy of labour - the privileged workers in the developed world who were bribed with the 'overflow' of profits from low wage exploitation in the developing world, and so politically neutered and inclined to support the ruling class.  Here we've got the aritstocracy of Labour - lead by a genuine knight, no less! - marshalling the supposed parliamentary champions of the workers against the workers.

And so much for freedom of conscience or association.  Apparently not a concern in the Starmerite Labour party.

Schadenfreude

I'm sure I'm not the only one who has noticed the irony of Boris Johnson's desperate attempts to cling onto power.

I recall, almost immediately after Jermey Corbyn was elected, a bunch of memes based on the WW2 film Downfall, associating the mild manner Jermey Corbyn with Hitler in his final, lunatic delusional days, desperately trying to summon up armies that did not exist to resist the unstoppable hordes.

I am old enough to recall the aftermath of the 2010 election (after all I was blogging on a semi-regular basis then!) when people were gloating about how Gordon Brown would have to be dragged out of Downing Street, kicking and screaming, of course, in the end, Brown walked out of Downing Street having willingly pulled the plug on the Lib Dems attempts to try to wring concessions out of him he could not give.  

(His successor, of course, rather made a mess of things by making concessions he did not imagine he would ever have to give, only to find events have a way of blowing things up in your face, which is how we ended up with Brexit.  And Boris Johnson.  Cheers, Call Me Dave!)

Johnson, of course is a huge fanboy for Churchill, so it is bemusing to see him casting himself in the Hitler role, as his premiership enters in berserk bunker phase.