Good Grief (Global Warming Edition)

So, Michael Bastach deigns to Share His Branes with the rest of us, gravely informing us that without el Nino's help, 2015 wuld not have been the warmest year on record:

Last year would not have definitely been the warmest on record without an incredibly strong El Niño warming the Pacific Ocean, according to analyses done by two climate scientists.

Government scientists declared 2015 to be the warmest on record in early January, reaching 0.87 degrees Celsius above the 20th Century average. But scientists admit some of that warmth would not have been possible without El Niño — a naturally-occurring warming event.

From here, Mr Bastach argues that, perhaps - because of margins of error and so forth - 2015 wasn't really the warmest year on record, really, not properly, because even though discounting el Nino, it might not have been the hottest year, because he doesn't want it to be.

This leads him to say all sorts of silly things, like "NASA and NOAA were heavily criticized for claiming 2014 as the warmest on record when they were so unsure."

A proper commentator would have taken the opportunity to explain why, in fact, the criticism was not justified, and how margins of error work, and why it doesn't really matter when almost all of the 15 warmest years on record have occurred in the 21st century, because it is the trend that matters.

Of course, he doesn't do that because his goal is to make people think, "Hmmmmm ... maybe it wasn't so hot last year after all."

Probably, we'll see people suggesting that climate peaked in 2014 and 2015 was really cooler, inspite of being hotter, and marks the start of a new cooling trend.  Only, because scientists were only 38% sure 2014 was the warmest year at the time, it probably wasn't, and so on, so forth.  All the way back to 1998.

Which was also a massive el Nino year, of course, but I think that fact might be conveniently overlooked.

If George Orwell lived today, he'd be penning a novel called 199, in which Hot = Cold.

Tree Frogs Return From Extinction

The Tree Frog, declared extinct for a hundred years, is back.  And it wants revenge.  Perhaps.

Quite what the fuss is, I do not know. I imagine it wouldn't be that difficult to put a frog in a tree, if you had the urge to.

A group of scientists, led by renowned Indian biologist Sathyabhama Das Biju, has rediscovered the frogs and also identified them as part of a new genus – one step higher than a species on the taxonomic ranking. 

Not only have they found the frogs in abundance in northeast Indian jungles, they believe they could also be living across a wide swathe of Asia from China to Thailand. 

“This is an exciting find, but it doesn’t mean the frogs are safe,” Biju said, adding that he hopes the discovery leads to more awareness of the dangers of unfettered development to the animals. 

The frogs were found at high altitudes in four northeast Indian states, underlining the rain-soaked region’s role as a biodiversity hotspot.

Still, I welcome back the mighty Tree Frog, and hope this bodes well for the rediscovery of other supposedly extinct species such as Mastodons, dinosaurs, and David Bowie.

British Polling

The still invaluable Jeremy Wells at UK Polling Report has offered us some You Gov London polling.

It's worth noting London was one of the areas where the pollsters generally got it right (another was Scotland, rather annoyingly).

Polling companies have been making adjustments to methodology polling companies have made following the election debacle; I wonder if this means the London polls are now all wrong.

CON 37%(+2)
LAB 44%(nc)
LDEM 4%(-4)
UKIP 11%(+3)
GRN 2%(-3)

London mayoral voting intentions:

KHAN 45% (Labour)
GOLDSMITH 35% (Conservative)
WHITTLE 6% (Who?)
BERRY 5% (Sadly, not a fruit)
PIDGEON 4% (Sadly, not a bird)
GALLOWAY 2% (Sadly, not a human)

Assuming the polls are at least a wee bit accurte, there is still no sign of the must-trumped 'Corbyn Collapse.'

Sweet Baby Jesus Wept: The Mail

Unsurprisingly, the Daily Mail has been having a fine old time with the horrible accounts emerging from Cologne.

What better way of stirring up bigotry and hysteria (the Mail's stock in trade when Kim K is not showing us her arse) than running dozens of stories about Muslims molesting European women?

Even better when it is being claimed that the perpetrators are asylum seekers, ungrateful refugees repaying German generosity by sexually assaulting and robbing vulnerable women?

Today the Mail reached a pinnacle of irresponsibility, running a story headlined, "18 Cologne sex attackers were asylum seekers". The implication is pretty clear - 18 people charged with sexual assaults were refugees.

The juxtaposition is pretty clear, leading the reader to think, reasonably, that 18 people who committed sex attacks at Cologne have been revealed to be asylum seekers.

Only, no-one has actually been charged with a sexual assault in relation to the events on New Year's Eve.

So far, 31 people have been arrested.  As the Mail admits, far down the article, "None of the 31 has been accused of specifically committing sexual assaults, the aspect of Cologne's disturbances that attracted most public outrage at home and abroad."

So the 18 "sex attackers" were - based on what they have been charged with so far - likely thieves and brawlers.

But let's not miss a chance to smear refugees and drum up a bit of hate, eh?

This whole story has been horribly exploited by the neo-fascist right.  Social media has been brilliantly manipulated.  Rumours and unsubstantiated claims have been spread, supposed conspiracies exposed and continual conflation of any Arab or North African involved in criminality with 'refugees' .

It is depressing - though not entirely surprising - to see the Mail following this lead with such gleeful insouciance.

Power without responsibility, and all that.

Ironic musical comment on the flag referendum thing

Yeah, I know.  The 'rag' in question is the stage curtain.  But any excuse to play Tom Waits.  Any excuse.

UnlessYouDieGate

Seems they aren't hated and abused enough and have to invent vitriol:

A Tory MP who voted to bomb Syria was criticised today after she doctored an email from a constituent so it read like a death threat. 

Lucy Allan, 51, published a genuine email from a voter who branded her 'an empty shell of a human being' and 'detached from reality' but added the words 'unless you die' and put it on Facebook. 

Sender Adam Watling, 27, who was writing as Rusty Shackleford, claims she deliberately added the final three words to make it appear as though he had sent a death threat. 

Mrs Allan has since deleted the Facebook post, claiming that the three extra words were from another email and the post was an 'illustration' of the unpleasant comments she had received.

Cameron should resign. How can he persist in office when he leads a party of evil hearted lie-mongers? He must take responsibility and show that honour has not been completely extirpated from the Conservative Party. After Shappsgate, Clarkegate and now UnlessyouDiegate, it is clearly impossible for his to remain in office. Resign! Resign!

Seriously, what is happening in the Conservative Party?  they've allowed grand Shapps, a serial spiv and liar, to retain in office until a couple of weeks ago; the party seems to be riddled with corruption, bullying, blackmail and vice; and now 'poetic licence' is being used as an excuse for making stuff up about people.

The whole party seems to be sick.  Perhaps they need to actually seize the opportunity Jeremy Corbyn proffers with his talk of a 'new politics'; but David Cameron's recent return to red-faced yelling and bluster suggests otherwise.  The culture of bullying, threatening and shouting down arguments starts at the top.

If this had been Labour ...

... there would be a slew of conspiracy theories about how it wasn't suicide, but a deliberate act of murder, carreid out with the PM's knowledge and approval.

Still, it's a filthy enough story without that.

Grant Shapps and Lord Feldman should resign over revelations the Conservative party failed to act on complaints about an election aide at the heart of a bullying scandal, says the father of a young activist believed to have killed himself. 

Ray Johnson – the father of 21-year-old political blogger Elliott, who accused the youth organiser Mark Clarke of bullying him before he was found dead in September – said his son would still be alive if the Conservative party and its chairmen had acted responsibly. 

... 

Earlier this month, the Conservative party said it had not received any written complaints about Clarke before August. “We have been checking and rechecking, but have not been able to find any records of written complaints that were made but not dealt with – but we are determined to get to the bottom of what’s happened,” it said. 

Evidence that Clarke had been subject to a written complaint as early as January will increase pressure on the party to reveal who knew Clarke had been the subject of complaints over his behaviour, which allegedly included claims of sexual assaults against female activists, attempted blackmail and intimidation of young supporters. 

Accusing the Conservatives of turning a blind eye to Clarke’s alleged behaviour, Ray Johnson said: “They should have seen this coming but for their own selfishness, their own desire to climb the greasy pole over the bodies of other people.” 

He said this was not the first example of political scandals which could have been avoided if complaints had been dealt with sensitively and seriously.

I'm no friend of the Tories (you may have noticed) but it is sickening to see how the party has become infiltrated with spivs and hucksters. This is the right's version of Militant Tendency entryism into Labour, and these self-serving fellow travels need to be expunged. Or the Conservative party needs to accept that it is no longer a conservative party but a neo-liberal party and rebrand itself appropriately. The Nasty Party or the Party of Blackmailing Selfish Shits would do nicely.